GuideAug 12, 2026Board rebuilt Aug 12, 2026, 6:35 PM EDT

The draft guide: who the room is late on

The short version

We work out where each player should come off the board in Dynasty PPR SF TEP, using what he is worth as an asset and how many points he projects above the last starter a league actually needs at his position. Then we compare that to Sleeper dynasty superflex ADP. The players below are the ones where those two numbers disagree most, in both directions.

How the gap is worked out

Comparing a ranking to an ADP straight across does not work, and it fails in a way that looks convincing. A ranking places every player against every other player. An ADP prices scarcity. In a one-quarterback league nobody spends pick 50 on the eighth-best quarterback no matter how good he is, so those two numbers disagree about every quarterback, every year, and a naive comparison hands you a list of them and calls it a discovery.

So we put both sides in the same unit before comparing them. For each position we work out how many starters a league actually needs, including its share of the flex, and find what the last of those starters projects to score. Everything above that line is a real edge; everything below it is replaceable. That gives an order of preference, which we then lay over the pick slots the market genuinely spends. The result is a pick number for every player: where he would go if the room drafted the same names in our order.

The gap is that pick number against Sleeper dynasty superflex ADP. Positive means he lasts longer than we would wait. Two more things shape the list. Every player carries a confidence score that falls away as both numbers get less reliable, so a name 300 picks deep cannot top the board on the strength of two guesses disagreeing. And each position has its own median gap subtracted before ranking, because a model-wide argument about whether quarterbacks go too late is a strategy question, not something to repeat in thirty rows.

Steals

Players our board wants earlier than the room takes them, measured against how the room prices their position, and only where we have enough data on both sides to mean it.

Travis Kelce
TEKansas City ChiefsSteal
Goes at
170
We'd take
126
Lasts 44 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 170 (round 15) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 126, and he lasts 44 picks longer than that. He projects 45 points above a replacement TE over the season. Beats his weekly projection 40% of the time.
Pts vs replacement TE
45 over
Beats projection
40%
Confidence
High
Chig Okonkwo
TEWashington CommandersSteal
Goes at
181
We'd take
110
Lasts 71 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 181 (round 16) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 110, and he lasts 71 picks longer than that. He projects 17 points above a replacement TE over the season. Beats his weekly projection 58% of the time.
Pts vs replacement TE
17 over
Beats projection
58%
Confidence
High
Stefon Diggs
WRFree agentSteal
Goes at
202
We'd take
144
Lasts 59 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 202 (round 17) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 144, and he lasts 59 picks longer than that. He projects 6 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 55% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
6 over
Beats projection
55%
Confidence
High
Parker Washington
WRJacksonville JaguarsSteal
Goes at
111
We'd take
74
Lasts 37 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 111 (round 10) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 74, and he lasts 37 picks longer than that. He projects 39 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 71% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 118.
Pts vs replacement WR
39 over
Beats projection
71%
Confidence
High
Jaylen Warren
RBPittsburgh SteelersSteal
Goes at
117
We'd take
82
Lasts 35 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 117 (round 10) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 82, and he lasts 35 picks longer than that. He projects 63 points above a replacement RB over the season. Beats his weekly projection 48% of the time.
Pts vs replacement RB
63 over
Beats projection
48%
Confidence
High
Josh Downs
WRIndianapolis ColtsSteal
Goes at
139
We'd take
107
Lasts 32 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 139 (round 12) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 107, and he lasts 32 picks longer than that. He projects 24 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 55% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
24 over
Beats projection
55%
Confidence
High
DeVonta Smith
WRPhiladelphia EaglesSteal
Goes at
74
We'd take
43
Lasts 32 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 74 (round 7) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 43, and he lasts 32 picks longer than that. He projects 84 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 45% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
84 over
Beats projection
45%
Confidence
High
Jayden Reed
WRGreen Bay PackersSteal
Goes at
136
We'd take
107
Lasts 29 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 136 (round 12) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 107, and he lasts 29 picks longer than that. He projects 43 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 53% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 150.
Pts vs replacement WR
43 over
Beats projection
53%
Confidence
High
Zay Flowers
WRBaltimore RavensSteal
Goes at
67
We'd take
40
Lasts 27 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 67 (round 6) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 40, and he lasts 27 picks longer than that. He projects 83 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 49% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
83 over
Beats projection
49%
Confidence
High
Jalen Coker
WRCarolina PanthersSteal
Goes at
139
We'd take
113
Lasts 26 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 139 (round 12) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 113, and he lasts 26 picks longer than that. He projects 41 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 46% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 148.
Pts vs replacement WR
41 over
Beats projection
46%
Confidence
High
Jaylen Waddle
WRDenver BroncosSteal
Goes at
80
We'd take
55
Lasts 24 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 80 (round 7) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 55, and he lasts 24 picks longer than that. He projects 37 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 36% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
37 over
Beats projection
36%
Confidence
High
D'Andre Swift
RBChicago BearsSteal
Goes at
100
We'd take
77
Lasts 23 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 100 (round 9) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 77, and he lasts 23 picks longer than that. He projects 52 points above a replacement RB over the season. Beats his weekly projection 40% of the time.
Pts vs replacement RB
52 over
Beats projection
40%
Confidence
High

Late-round swings

Available after pick 100, projects above a replacement starter, and the read is thinner. These are darts, and they are supposed to be.

Juwan Johnson
TENew Orleans SaintsLate swing
Goes at
143
We'd take
124
Lasts 19 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 143 (round 12) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 124, and he lasts 19 picks longer than that. He projects 30 points above a replacement TE over the season. Beats his weekly projection 66% of the time. A dart throw, not a plan. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 160.
Pts vs replacement TE
30 over
Beats projection
66%
Confidence
High
Kenneth Gainwell
RBTampa Bay BuccaneersLate swing
Goes at
149
We'd take
136
Lasts 12 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 149 (round 13) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 136, and he lasts 12 picks longer than that. He projects 3 points above a replacement RB over the season. Beats his weekly projection 54% of the time. A dart throw, not a plan. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 162.
Pts vs replacement RB
3 over
Beats projection
54%
Confidence
High
Rico Dowdle
RBPittsburgh SteelersLate swing
Goes at
130
We'd take
118
Lasts 12 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 130 (round 11) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 118, and he lasts 12 picks longer than that. He projects 18 points above a replacement RB over the season. Beats his weekly projection 34% of the time. A dart throw, not a plan. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 137.
Pts vs replacement RB
18 over
Beats projection
34%
Confidence
High
Davante Adams
WRLos Angeles RamsLate swing
Goes at
105
We'd take
95
Lasts 10 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 105 (round 9) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 95, and he lasts 10 picks longer than that. He projects 46 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 50% of the time. A dart throw, not a plan.
Pts vs replacement WR
46 over
Beats projection
50%
Confidence
High
David Montgomery
RBHouston TexansLate swing
Goes at
109
We'd take
100
Lasts 9 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 109 (round 10) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 100, and he lasts 9 picks longer than that. He projects 46 points above a replacement RB over the season. Beats his weekly projection 44% of the time. A dart throw, not a plan. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 117.
Pts vs replacement RB
46 over
Beats projection
44%
Confidence
High

Fades

The other direction. The room is spending earlier on these players than our board says they are worth.

Trey Benson
RBArizona CardinalsFade
Goes at
156
We'd take
255
Goes 99 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 156 (round 14) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 255, so the room is spending 99 picks too early on him. He projects 148 points below a replacement RB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 45% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 189.
Pts vs replacement RB
148 under
Beats projection
45%
Confidence
High
Brandon Aiyuk
WRSan Francisco 49ersFade
Goes at
156
We'd take
246
Goes 90 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 156 (round 13) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 246, so the room is spending 90 picks too early on him. He projects 153 points below a replacement WR, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 33% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 196.
Pts vs replacement WR
153 under
Beats projection
33%
Confidence
High
Mason Taylor
TENew York JetsFade
Goes at
138
We'd take
214
Goes 76 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 138 (round 12) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 214, so the room is spending 76 picks too early on him. He projects 127 points below a replacement TE, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 25% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 176.
Pts vs replacement TE
127 under
Beats projection
25%
Confidence
High
J.J. McCarthy
QBMinnesota VikingsFade
Goes at
152
We'd take
246
Goes 94 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 152 (round 13) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 246, so the room is spending 94 picks too early on him. He projects 238 points below a replacement QB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 33% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 174.
Pts vs replacement QB
238 under
Beats projection
33%
Confidence
High
Anthony Richardson
QBIndianapolis ColtsFade
Goes at
183
We'd take
268
Goes 86 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 183 (round 16) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 268, so the room is spending 86 picks too early on him. He projects 241 points below a replacement QB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 60% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 228.
Pts vs replacement QB
241 under
Beats projection
60%
Confidence
High
Theo Johnson
TENew York GiantsFade
Goes at
175
We'd take
241
Goes 67 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 175 (round 15) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 241, so the room is spending 67 picks too early on him. He projects 137 points below a replacement TE, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 41% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 198.
Pts vs replacement TE
137 under
Beats projection
41%
Confidence
High
Mac Jones
QBSan Francisco 49ersFade
Goes at
182
We'd take
259
Goes 77 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 182 (round 16) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 259, so the room is spending 77 picks too early on him. He projects 224 points below a replacement QB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 52% of the time.
Pts vs replacement QB
224 under
Beats projection
52%
Confidence
High
Jake Tonges
TESan Francisco 49ersFade
Goes at
204
We'd take
261
Goes 57 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 204 (round 17) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 261, so the room is spending 57 picks too early on him. He projects 150 points below a replacement TE, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 44% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 227.
Pts vs replacement TE
150 under
Beats projection
44%
Confidence
High
Justin Fields
QBKansas City ChiefsFade
Goes at
216
We'd take
288
Goes 71 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 216 (round 18) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 288, so the room is spending 72 picks too early on him. He projects 237 points below a replacement QB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 37% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 236.
Pts vs replacement QB
237 under
Beats projection
37%
Confidence
High
Kyle Williams
WRNew England PatriotsFade
Goes at
213
We'd take
268
Goes 55 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 213 (round 18) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 268, so the room is spending 55 picks too early on him. He projects 158 points below a replacement WR, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 38% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 234.
Pts vs replacement WR
158 under
Beats projection
38%
Confidence
High
Kaleb Johnson
RBPittsburgh SteelersFade
Goes at
199
We'd take
252
Goes 53 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 199 (round 17) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 252, so the room is spending 53 picks too early on him. He projects 156 points below a replacement RB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 11% of the time.
Pts vs replacement RB
156 under
Beats projection
11%
Confidence
High
David Njoku
TELos Angeles ChargersFade
Goes at
187
We'd take
235
Goes 47 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 187 (round 16) in Dynasty PPR SF TEP. We would take him around 235, so the room is spending 47 picks too early on him. He projects 139 points below a replacement TE, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 23% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 214.
Pts vs replacement TE
139 under
Beats projection
23%
Confidence
High

Tier-based drafting, explained properly

A ranking list is a single file: player 14, player 15, player 16, all the way down. It looks precise, and that is the problem. Nobody can honestly tell you the 15th best player is better than the 16th. What they can tell you is that a group of six players are all roughly the same, and then there is a real drop.

Tiers are that idea written down. Instead of one list of a hundred names you get maybe twelve groups, and inside a group the order barely matters. Between groups it matters a lot. That single change is what turns a ranking into something you can actually draft off.

The cliff is the whole point

The gap between the last player in one tier and the first player in the next is called a tier break, and people also call it a cliff, which is the more useful word. Inside a tier you are choosing between players who will probably finish near each other. Step over the break and you are taking a genuine downgrade.

So the rule that falls out of it: taking any player from the tier you are in is fine, even the one ranked lowest in it. Reaching across a break to take someone from a tier below is the move to avoid, and it is the one a plain ranking list quietly encourages, because on a flat list a two-spot difference looks the same everywhere.

Counting is the skill

Here is the habit that makes tiers pay off, and it takes about four seconds per pick. When you are on the clock, look at the tier you want a player from and count how many names are still in it. Then work out how many picks happen before your next turn.

If eight names are left in that tier and only fourteen picks separate you from your next one, some of those eight will still be there. You can spend this pick somewhere else and come back. If two names are left, they will be gone, and now you have a real decision: pay for one of them now, or accept the drop to the next tier.

That is the entire method. The question stops being which player is ranked highest and becomes which cliff you are about to fall off, and which one you can still walk back from.

Where it saves you: the positional run

Four running backs go in five picks and the room tenses up. Everyone feels behind, and the next three drafters take a running back they had not planned on. This is the single most common way a draft gets away from people.

Tiers answer it directly. If the run has emptied the running back tier you wanted, the players left are from the tier below, and reaching for one is exactly the mistake. Meanwhile the run means nobody has been taking receivers, so a receiver from a tier you rate highly may have slid to you. The run created value somewhere else in the room, and counting is how you see it while everyone else is panicking.

Scarcity is not a reason to reach

Positional scarcity gets misused constantly. It does not mean "draft this position early". It means the drop-off at that position arrives sooner, so the cost of waiting is higher there than elsewhere. Running back tends to feel scarce because the workload concentrates in fewer players; receiver usually stays deeper further into the middle rounds.

A weak player does not become a good pick because his position is thinning out. If the remaining names at a scarce position are all from a tier you do not want, the answer is to take the better player elsewhere and solve that position later, not to buy the best of a bad group at full price.

Tiers do not transfer across positions

A tier 1 quarterback and a tier 1 running back are not worth the same thing, and tier 2 receivers can be worth more than tier 2 backs. The number labels a group within its own position; it is not a currency you can spend across the board. Compare the size of the drop you are avoiding, not the tier numbers.

How this page fits

The lists above are the tier idea aimed at one specific question. A steal is a player whose cliff sits well below where the room is drafting him, which is another way of saying you can wait on him and still get the tier. A fade is the reverse: you are being asked to pay a tier early. Working out where the cliffs are is the job; this page does the arithmetic for the format you picked.

If you want the tiers themselves rather than the ends of the list, the rankings board carries a tier on every player, and On The Clock does the counting for you during a live draft, including calling out a run while it is happening.

What to do with this on draft day

Do not reach for a steal

A player on the steals list is worth having because he lasts. Taking him two rounds before his ADP throws away the entire reason he is on the list. Note the pick he usually goes at, take him a few picks before that, and spend the earlier rounds on players whose price and value already agree.

Swings are supposed to fail

The late-round swings have thinner evidence than the steals, and that is the point of a late pick. One of them hitting pays for the rest missing. Take two or three of them at the end of a draft; do not build a starting lineup out of them.

A fade is not a warning about the player

Nobody on the fades list is bad. Each of them is priced ahead of what our board says he is worth, which usually means the room is paying for last season, for name recognition, or for a role that has not been confirmed. If one falls a round or two past his ADP, he stops being a fade and becomes a fine pick.

Format changes the answer more than people expect

Switching between the formats above is not cosmetic. A superflex league needs twice as many starting quarterbacks, which moves every quarterback and, because the picks have to come from somewhere, every other position too. A tight end premium does the same thing to tight ends. Read the list for the league you are actually in.

When your board falls apart

Runs happen. Three teams take a quarterback in four picks and the plan you wrote down stops applying. The useful habit is to stop thinking about the position you meant to fill and go back to the question this whole page is built on: which player available right now is furthest ahead of where he should be going. That is usually not the position that just ran.

Where these numbers come from

Values are FF Beacon's own, rebuilt daily. Projections are Sleeper's weekly numbers, rescored under each format's rules rather than read off a generic column, so a tight end premium actually counts. Reliability comes from how often each player has beaten his own weekly projection in seasons we have graded. The market side is public ADP, plus a second read from the real Sleeper drafts synced through League Pulse and On The Clock.

Everything here is free. The full rankings board shows every player rather than the ends of the list, and On The Clock runs the same comparison live inside your Sleeper draft.