GuideAug 12, 2026Board rebuilt Aug 12, 2026, 6:35 PM EDT

The draft guide: who the room is late on

The short version

We work out where each player should come off the board in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP, using what he is worth as an asset and how many points he projects above the last starter a league actually needs at his position. Then we compare that to Sleeper dynasty PPR ADP. The players below are the ones where those two numbers disagree most, in both directions.

How the gap is worked out

Comparing a ranking to an ADP straight across does not work, and it fails in a way that looks convincing. A ranking places every player against every other player. An ADP prices scarcity. In a one-quarterback league nobody spends pick 50 on the eighth-best quarterback no matter how good he is, so those two numbers disagree about every quarterback, every year, and a naive comparison hands you a list of them and calls it a discovery.

So we put both sides in the same unit before comparing them. For each position we work out how many starters a league actually needs, including its share of the flex, and find what the last of those starters projects to score. Everything above that line is a real edge; everything below it is replaceable. That gives an order of preference, which we then lay over the pick slots the market genuinely spends. The result is a pick number for every player: where he would go if the room drafted the same names in our order.

The gap is that pick number against Sleeper dynasty PPR ADP. Positive means he lasts longer than we would wait. Two more things shape the list. Every player carries a confidence score that falls away as both numbers get less reliable, so a name 300 picks deep cannot top the board on the strength of two guesses disagreeing. And each position has its own median gap subtracted before ranking, because a model-wide argument about whether quarterbacks go too late is a strategy question, not something to repeat in thirty rows.

Steals

Players our board wants earlier than the room takes them, measured against how the room prices their position, and only where we have enough data on both sides to mean it.

Chig Okonkwo
TEWashington CommandersSteal
Goes at
167
We'd take
102
Lasts 65 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 167 (round 14) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 102, and he lasts 65 picks longer than that. He projects 17 points above a replacement TE over the season. Beats his weekly projection 58% of the time.
Pts vs replacement TE
17 over
Beats projection
58%
Confidence
High
Jared Goff
QBDetroit LionsSteal
Goes at
157
We'd take
102
Lasts 54 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 157 (round 14) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 102, and he lasts 54 picks longer than that. He projects 13 points above a replacement QB over the season. Beats his weekly projection 59% of the time.
Pts vs replacement QB
13 over
Beats projection
59%
Confidence
High
Stefon Diggs
WRFree agentSteal
Goes at
186
We'd take
143
Lasts 42 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 186 (round 16) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 143, and he lasts 42 picks longer than that. He projects 6 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 55% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
6 over
Beats projection
55%
Confidence
High
DeVonta Smith
WRPhiladelphia EaglesSteal
Goes at
69
We'd take
35
Lasts 34 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 69 (round 6) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 35, and he lasts 34 picks longer than that. He projects 84 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 45% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
84 over
Beats projection
45%
Confidence
High
Travis Kelce
TEKansas City ChiefsSteal
Goes at
154
We'd take
124
Lasts 30 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 154 (round 13) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 124, and he lasts 30 picks longer than that. He projects 45 points above a replacement TE over the season. Beats his weekly projection 40% of the time.
Pts vs replacement TE
45 over
Beats projection
40%
Confidence
High
Parker Washington
WRJacksonville JaguarsSteal
Goes at
96
We'd take
66
Lasts 31 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 96 (round 9) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 66, and he lasts 31 picks longer than that. He projects 39 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 71% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
39 over
Beats projection
71%
Confidence
High
Jaylen Waddle
WRDenver BroncosSteal
Goes at
72
We'd take
41
Lasts 31 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 72 (round 6) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 41, and he lasts 31 picks longer than that. He projects 37 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 36% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
37 over
Beats projection
36%
Confidence
High
Zay Flowers
WRBaltimore RavensSteal
Goes at
59
We'd take
29
Lasts 30 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 59 (round 5) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 29, and he lasts 30 picks longer than that. He projects 83 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 49% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
83 over
Beats projection
49%
Confidence
High
Jaylen Warren
RBPittsburgh SteelersSteal
Goes at
103
We'd take
70
Lasts 33 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 103 (round 9) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 70, and he lasts 33 picks longer than that. He projects 63 points above a replacement RB over the season. Beats his weekly projection 48% of the time.
Pts vs replacement RB
63 over
Beats projection
48%
Confidence
High
Josh Downs
WRIndianapolis ColtsSteal
Goes at
127
We'd take
99
Lasts 28 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 127 (round 11) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 99, and he lasts 28 picks longer than that. He projects 24 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 55% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
24 over
Beats projection
55%
Confidence
High
Jayden Reed
WRGreen Bay PackersSteal
Goes at
124
We'd take
98
Lasts 26 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 124 (round 11) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 98, and he lasts 26 picks longer than that. He projects 43 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 53% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
43 over
Beats projection
53%
Confidence
High
Jalen Coker
WRCarolina PanthersSteal
Goes at
125
We'd take
101
Lasts 24 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 125 (round 11) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 101, and he lasts 24 picks longer than that. He projects 41 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 46% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
41 over
Beats projection
46%
Confidence
High

Late-round swings

Available after pick 100, projects above a replacement starter, and the read is thinner. These are darts, and they are supposed to be.

Mike Evans
WRSan Francisco 49ersLate swing
Goes at
104
We'd take
95
Lasts 10 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 104 (round 9) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 95, and he lasts 10 picks longer than that. He projects 51 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 30% of the time. A dart throw, not a plan.
Pts vs replacement WR
51 over
Beats projection
30%
Confidence
High
Rico Dowdle
RBPittsburgh SteelersLate swing
Goes at
116
We'd take
104
Lasts 13 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 116 (round 10) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 104, and he lasts 13 picks longer than that. He projects 18 points above a replacement RB over the season. Beats his weekly projection 34% of the time. A dart throw, not a plan.
Pts vs replacement RB
18 over
Beats projection
34%
Confidence
High
Chris Godwin
WRTampa Bay BuccaneersLate swing
Goes at
129
We'd take
120
Lasts 9 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 129 (round 11) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 120, and he lasts 9 picks longer than that. He projects 7 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 48% of the time. A dart throw, not a plan.
Pts vs replacement WR
7 over
Beats projection
48%
Confidence
High
Kenneth Gainwell
RBTampa Bay BuccaneersLate swing
Goes at
135
We'd take
123
Lasts 12 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 135 (round 12) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 123, and he lasts 12 picks longer than that. He projects 3 points above a replacement RB over the season. Beats his weekly projection 54% of the time. A dart throw, not a plan.
Pts vs replacement RB
3 over
Beats projection
54%
Confidence
High
AJ Barner
TESeattle SeahawksLate swing
Goes at
132
We'd take
125
Lasts 7 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 132 (round 12) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 125, and he lasts 7 picks longer than that. He projects 8 points above a replacement TE over the season. Beats his weekly projection 51% of the time. A dart throw, not a plan.
Pts vs replacement TE
8 over
Beats projection
51%
Confidence
High
Dalton Schultz
TEHouston TexansLate swing
Goes at
161
We'd take
155
Lasts 7 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 161 (round 14) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 155, and he lasts 7 picks longer than that. He projects 1 points above a replacement TE over the season. Beats his weekly projection 54% of the time. A dart throw, not a plan.
Pts vs replacement TE
1 over
Beats projection
54%
Confidence
High

Fades

The other direction. The room is spending earlier on these players than our board says they are worth.

Trey Benson
RBArizona CardinalsFade
Goes at
142
We'd take
238
Goes 96 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 142 (round 12) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 238, so the room is spending 96 picks too early on him. He projects 148 points below a replacement RB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 45% of the time.
Pts vs replacement RB
148 under
Beats projection
45%
Confidence
High
Michael Penix
QBAtlanta FalconsFade
Goes at
151
We'd take
249
Goes 99 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 151 (round 13) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 249, so the room is spending 99 picks too early on him. He projects 207 points below a replacement QB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 18% of the time.
Pts vs replacement QB
207 under
Beats projection
18%
Confidence
High
Brandon Aiyuk
WRSan Francisco 49ersFade
Goes at
141
We'd take
226
Goes 85 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 141 (round 12) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 226, so the room is spending 85 picks too early on him. He projects 153 points below a replacement WR, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 33% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
153 under
Beats projection
33%
Confidence
High
Mason Taylor
TENew York JetsFade
Goes at
125
We'd take
203
Goes 78 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 125 (round 11) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 203, so the room is spending 78 picks too early on him. He projects 127 points below a replacement TE, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 25% of the time.
Pts vs replacement TE
127 under
Beats projection
25%
Confidence
High
Theo Johnson
TENew York GiantsFade
Goes at
161
We'd take
224
Goes 63 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 161 (round 14) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 224, so the room is spending 63 picks too early on him. He projects 137 points below a replacement TE, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 41% of the time.
Pts vs replacement TE
137 under
Beats projection
41%
Confidence
High
David Njoku
TELos Angeles ChargersFade
Goes at
170
We'd take
224
Goes 54 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 170 (round 15) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 224, so the room is spending 54 picks too early on him. He projects 139 points below a replacement TE, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 23% of the time.
Pts vs replacement TE
139 under
Beats projection
23%
Confidence
High
Jake Tonges
TESan Francisco 49ersFade
Goes at
188
We'd take
241
Goes 54 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 188 (round 16) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 241, so the room is spending 54 picks too early on him. He projects 150 points below a replacement TE, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 44% of the time.
Pts vs replacement TE
150 under
Beats projection
44%
Confidence
High
Tyler Allgeier
RBArizona CardinalsFade
Goes at
107
We'd take
156
Goes 48 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 107 (round 9) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 156, so the room is spending 49 picks too early on him. He projects 100 points below a replacement RB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 45% of the time.
Pts vs replacement RB
100 under
Beats projection
45%
Confidence
High
Kaleb Johnson
RBPittsburgh SteelersFade
Goes at
183
We'd take
231
Goes 48 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 183 (round 16) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 231, so the room is spending 48 picks too early on him. He projects 156 points below a replacement RB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 11% of the time.
Pts vs replacement RB
156 under
Beats projection
11%
Confidence
High
Jalen Hurts
QBPhiladelphia EaglesFade
Goes at
26
We'd take
79
Goes 53 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 26 (round 3) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 79, so the room is spending 53 picks too early on him. He projects 14 points below a replacement QB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 35% of the time.
Pts vs replacement QB
14 under
Beats projection
35%
Confidence
High
Joe Burrow
QBCincinnati BengalsFade
Goes at
12
We'd take
63
Goes 51 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 12 (round 1) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 63, so the room is spending 52 picks too early on him. He projects 9 points below a replacement QB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 26% of the time.
Pts vs replacement QB
9 under
Beats projection
26%
Confidence
High
Kyle Williams
WRNew England PatriotsFade
Goes at
197
We'd take
245
Goes 48 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 197 (round 17) in Dynasty PPR 1QB TEP. We would take him around 245, so the room is spending 48 picks too early on him. He projects 158 points below a replacement WR, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 38% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
158 under
Beats projection
38%
Confidence
High

Tier-based drafting, explained properly

A ranking list is a single file: player 14, player 15, player 16, all the way down. It looks precise, and that is the problem. Nobody can honestly tell you the 15th best player is better than the 16th. What they can tell you is that a group of six players are all roughly the same, and then there is a real drop.

Tiers are that idea written down. Instead of one list of a hundred names you get maybe twelve groups, and inside a group the order barely matters. Between groups it matters a lot. That single change is what turns a ranking into something you can actually draft off.

The cliff is the whole point

The gap between the last player in one tier and the first player in the next is called a tier break, and people also call it a cliff, which is the more useful word. Inside a tier you are choosing between players who will probably finish near each other. Step over the break and you are taking a genuine downgrade.

So the rule that falls out of it: taking any player from the tier you are in is fine, even the one ranked lowest in it. Reaching across a break to take someone from a tier below is the move to avoid, and it is the one a plain ranking list quietly encourages, because on a flat list a two-spot difference looks the same everywhere.

Counting is the skill

Here is the habit that makes tiers pay off, and it takes about four seconds per pick. When you are on the clock, look at the tier you want a player from and count how many names are still in it. Then work out how many picks happen before your next turn.

If eight names are left in that tier and only fourteen picks separate you from your next one, some of those eight will still be there. You can spend this pick somewhere else and come back. If two names are left, they will be gone, and now you have a real decision: pay for one of them now, or accept the drop to the next tier.

That is the entire method. The question stops being which player is ranked highest and becomes which cliff you are about to fall off, and which one you can still walk back from.

Where it saves you: the positional run

Four running backs go in five picks and the room tenses up. Everyone feels behind, and the next three drafters take a running back they had not planned on. This is the single most common way a draft gets away from people.

Tiers answer it directly. If the run has emptied the running back tier you wanted, the players left are from the tier below, and reaching for one is exactly the mistake. Meanwhile the run means nobody has been taking receivers, so a receiver from a tier you rate highly may have slid to you. The run created value somewhere else in the room, and counting is how you see it while everyone else is panicking.

Scarcity is not a reason to reach

Positional scarcity gets misused constantly. It does not mean "draft this position early". It means the drop-off at that position arrives sooner, so the cost of waiting is higher there than elsewhere. Running back tends to feel scarce because the workload concentrates in fewer players; receiver usually stays deeper further into the middle rounds.

A weak player does not become a good pick because his position is thinning out. If the remaining names at a scarce position are all from a tier you do not want, the answer is to take the better player elsewhere and solve that position later, not to buy the best of a bad group at full price.

Tiers do not transfer across positions

A tier 1 quarterback and a tier 1 running back are not worth the same thing, and tier 2 receivers can be worth more than tier 2 backs. The number labels a group within its own position; it is not a currency you can spend across the board. Compare the size of the drop you are avoiding, not the tier numbers.

How this page fits

The lists above are the tier idea aimed at one specific question. A steal is a player whose cliff sits well below where the room is drafting him, which is another way of saying you can wait on him and still get the tier. A fade is the reverse: you are being asked to pay a tier early. Working out where the cliffs are is the job; this page does the arithmetic for the format you picked.

If you want the tiers themselves rather than the ends of the list, the rankings board carries a tier on every player, and On The Clock does the counting for you during a live draft, including calling out a run while it is happening.

What to do with this on draft day

Do not reach for a steal

A player on the steals list is worth having because he lasts. Taking him two rounds before his ADP throws away the entire reason he is on the list. Note the pick he usually goes at, take him a few picks before that, and spend the earlier rounds on players whose price and value already agree.

Swings are supposed to fail

The late-round swings have thinner evidence than the steals, and that is the point of a late pick. One of them hitting pays for the rest missing. Take two or three of them at the end of a draft; do not build a starting lineup out of them.

A fade is not a warning about the player

Nobody on the fades list is bad. Each of them is priced ahead of what our board says he is worth, which usually means the room is paying for last season, for name recognition, or for a role that has not been confirmed. If one falls a round or two past his ADP, he stops being a fade and becomes a fine pick.

Format changes the answer more than people expect

Switching between the formats above is not cosmetic. A superflex league needs twice as many starting quarterbacks, which moves every quarterback and, because the picks have to come from somewhere, every other position too. A tight end premium does the same thing to tight ends. Read the list for the league you are actually in.

When your board falls apart

Runs happen. Three teams take a quarterback in four picks and the plan you wrote down stops applying. The useful habit is to stop thinking about the position you meant to fill and go back to the question this whole page is built on: which player available right now is furthest ahead of where he should be going. That is usually not the position that just ran.

Where these numbers come from

Values are FF Beacon's own, rebuilt daily. Projections are Sleeper's weekly numbers, rescored under each format's rules rather than read off a generic column, so a tight end premium actually counts. Reliability comes from how often each player has beaten his own weekly projection in seasons we have graded. The market side is public ADP, plus a second read from the real Sleeper drafts synced through League Pulse and On The Clock.

Everything here is free. The full rankings board shows every player rather than the ends of the list, and On The Clock runs the same comparison live inside your Sleeper draft.