The short version
We work out where each player should come off the board in Dynasty PPR 1QB, using what he is worth as an asset and how many points he projects above the last starter a league actually needs at his position. Then we compare that to Sleeper dynasty PPR ADP. The players below are the ones where those two numbers disagree most, in both directions.
The method
How the gap is worked out
Comparing a ranking to an ADP straight across does not work, and it fails in a way that looks convincing. A ranking places every player against every other player. An ADP prices scarcity. In a one-quarterback league nobody spends pick 50 on the eighth-best quarterback no matter how good he is, so those two numbers disagree about every quarterback, every year, and a naive comparison hands you a list of them and calls it a discovery.
So we put both sides in the same unit before comparing them. For each position we work out how many starters a league actually needs, including its share of the flex, and find what the last of those starters projects to score. Everything above that line is a real edge; everything below it is replaceable. That gives an order of preference, which we then lay over the pick slots the market genuinely spends. The result is a pick number for every player: where he would go if the room drafted the same names in our order.
The gap is that pick number against Sleeper dynasty PPR ADP. Positive means he lasts longer than we would wait. Two more things shape the list. Every player carries a confidence score that falls away as both numbers get less reliable, so a name 300 picks deep cannot top the board on the strength of two guesses disagreeing. And each position has its own median gap subtracted before ranking, because a model-wide argument about whether quarterbacks go too late is a strategy question, not something to repeat in thirty rows.
The board
Steals
Players our board wants earlier than the room takes them, measured against how the room prices their position, and only where we have enough data on both sides to mean it.
WRCarolina PanthersStealGoes at
128
We'd take
52
Lasts 76 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 128 (round 11) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 52, and he lasts 76 picks longer than that. He projects 78 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 51% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
78 over
Beats projection
51%
Confidence
High
QBSan Francisco 49ersStealGoes at
111
We'd take
41
Lasts 70 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 111 (round 10) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 41, and he lasts 70 picks longer than that. He projects 79 points above a replacement QB over the season. Beats his weekly projection 38% of the time.
Pts vs replacement QB
79 over
Beats projection
38%
Confidence
High
WRGreen Bay PackersStealGoes at
96
We'd take
29
Lasts 67 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 96 (round 8) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 29, and he lasts 67 picks longer than that. He projects 62 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 41% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 108.
Pts vs replacement WR
62 over
Beats projection
41%
Confidence
High
QBNew Orleans SaintsStealGoes at
155
We'd take
87
Lasts 69 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 155 (round 13) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 87, and he lasts 69 picks longer than that. He projects 1 points above a replacement QB over the season. Beats his weekly projection 54% of the time.
Pts vs replacement QB
1 over
Beats projection
54%
Confidence
High
QBGreen Bay PackersStealGoes at
134
We'd take
72
Lasts 62 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 134 (round 12) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 72, and he lasts 62 picks longer than that. He projects 13 points above a replacement QB over the season. Beats his weekly projection 36% of the time.
Pts vs replacement QB
13 over
Beats projection
36%
Confidence
High
WRJacksonville JaguarsStealGoes at
77
We'd take
23
Lasts 54 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 77 (round 7) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 23, and he lasts 54 picks longer than that. He projects 117 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 57% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
117 over
Beats projection
57%
Confidence
High
TENew Orleans SaintsStealGoes at
163
We'd take
114
Lasts 49 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 163 (round 14) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 114, and he lasts 49 picks longer than that. He projects 12 points above a replacement TE over the season. Beats his weekly projection 47% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 172.
Pts vs replacement TE
12 over
Beats projection
47%
Confidence
High
RBCarolina PanthersStealGoes at
89
We'd take
48
Lasts 41 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 89 (round 8) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 48, and he lasts 41 picks longer than that. He projects 117 points above a replacement RB over the season. Beats his weekly projection 53% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 99.
Pts vs replacement RB
117 over
Beats projection
53%
Confidence
High
RBMinnesota VikingsStealGoes at
152
We'd take
111
Lasts 41 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 152 (round 13) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 111, and he lasts 41 picks longer than that. He projects 31 points above a replacement RB over the season. Beats his weekly projection 46% of the time.
Pts vs replacement RB
31 over
Beats projection
46%
Confidence
High
WRGreen Bay PackersStealGoes at
74
We'd take
26
Lasts 47 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 74 (round 7) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 26, and he lasts 47 picks longer than that. He projects 120 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 40% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
120 over
Beats projection
40%
Confidence
High
TESan Francisco 49ersStealGoes at
102
We'd take
63
Lasts 39 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 102 (round 9) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 63, and he lasts 39 picks longer than that. He projects 78 points above a replacement TE over the season. Beats his weekly projection 54% of the time.
Pts vs replacement TE
78 over
Beats projection
54%
Confidence
High
TENew York GiantsStealGoes at
94
We'd take
55
Lasts 39 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 94 (round 8) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 55, and he lasts 39 picks longer than that. He projects 42 points above a replacement TE over the season. Beats his weekly projection 41% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 105.
Pts vs replacement TE
42 over
Beats projection
41%
Confidence
High
The board
Late-round swings
Available after pick 100, projects above a replacement starter, and the read is thinner. These are darts, and they are supposed to be.
Nothing in this format currently qualifies as a late-round swing.
The board
Fades
The other direction. The room is spending earlier on these players than our board says they are worth.
QBPhiladelphia EaglesFadeGoes at
62
We'd take
215
Goes 154 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 62 (round 6) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 215, so the room is spending 154 picks too early on him. He projects 191 points below a replacement QB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 31% of the time.
Pts vs replacement QB
191 under
Beats projection
31%
Confidence
High
WRGreen Bay PackersFadeGoes at
115
We'd take
220
Goes 105 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 115 (round 10) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 220, so the room is spending 105 picks too early on him. He projects 143 points below a replacement WR, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 35% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
143 under
Beats projection
35%
Confidence
High
WRAtlanta FalconsFadeGoes at
142
We'd take
244
Goes 102 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 142 (round 12) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 244, so the room is spending 102 picks too early on him. He projects 115 points below a replacement WR, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 41% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 149.
Pts vs replacement WR
115 under
Beats projection
41%
Confidence
High
WRTampa Bay BuccaneersFadeGoes at
159
We'd take
243
Goes 84 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 159 (round 14) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 243, so the room is spending 84 picks too early on him. He projects 123 points below a replacement WR, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 39% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 166.
Pts vs replacement WR
123 under
Beats projection
39%
Confidence
High
WRSan Francisco 49ersFadeGoes at
124
We'd take
200
Goes 76 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 124 (round 11) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 200, so the room is spending 76 picks too early on him. He projects 156 points below a replacement WR, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 0% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
156 under
Beats projection
0%
Confidence
High
WRWashington CommandersFadeGoes at
78
We'd take
152
Goes 74 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 78 (round 7) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 152, so the room is spending 74 picks too early on him. He projects 107 points below a replacement WR, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 47% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 84.
Pts vs replacement WR
107 under
Beats projection
47%
Confidence
High
WRHouston TexansFadeGoes at
170
We'd take
238
Goes 68 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 170 (round 15) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 238, so the room is spending 68 picks too early on him. He projects 138 points below a replacement WR, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 47% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 197.
Pts vs replacement WR
138 under
Beats projection
47%
Confidence
High
WRHouston TexansFadeGoes at
60
We'd take
124
Goes 64 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 60 (round 6) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 124, so the room is spending 64 picks too early on him. He projects 111 points below a replacement WR, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 52% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
111 under
Beats projection
52%
Confidence
High
RBPhiladelphia EaglesFadeGoes at
162
We'd take
234
Goes 72 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 162 (round 14) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 234, so the room is spending 73 picks too early on him. He projects 114 points below a replacement RB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 45% of the time. Our own synced drafts let him fall even further, to about 169.
Pts vs replacement RB
114 under
Beats projection
45%
Confidence
High
RBMiami DolphinsFadeGoes at
14
We'd take
85
Goes 72 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 14 (round 2) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 85, so the room is spending 72 picks too early on him. He projects 108 points below a replacement RB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 27% of the time.
Pts vs replacement RB
108 under
Beats projection
27%
Confidence
High
WRJacksonville JaguarsFadeGoes at
66
We'd take
122
Goes 56 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 66 (round 6) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 122, so the room is spending 56 picks too early on him. He projects 78 points below a replacement WR, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 35% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
78 under
Beats projection
35%
Confidence
High
WRPittsburgh SteelersFadeGoes at
111
We'd take
163
Goes 52 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 111 (round 10) in Dynasty PPR 1QB. We would take him around 163, so the room is spending 53 picks too early on him. He projects 82 points below a replacement WR, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 42% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
82 under
Beats projection
42%
Confidence
High
Draft strategy
Tier-based drafting, explained properly
A ranking list is a single file: player 14, player 15, player 16, all the way down. It looks precise, and that is the problem. Nobody can honestly tell you the 15th best player is better than the 16th. What they can tell you is that a group of six players are all roughly the same, and then there is a real drop.
Tiers are that idea written down. Instead of one list of a hundred names you get maybe twelve groups, and inside a group the order barely matters. Between groups it matters a lot. That single change is what turns a ranking into something you can actually draft off.
The cliff is the whole point
The gap between the last player in one tier and the first player in the next is called a tier break, and people also call it a cliff, which is the more useful word. Inside a tier you are choosing between players who will probably finish near each other. Step over the break and you are taking a genuine downgrade.
So the rule that falls out of it: taking any player from the tier you are in is fine, even the one ranked lowest in it. Reaching across a break to take someone from a tier below is the move to avoid, and it is the one a plain ranking list quietly encourages, because on a flat list a two-spot difference looks the same everywhere.
Counting is the skill
Here is the habit that makes tiers pay off, and it takes about four seconds per pick. When you are on the clock, look at the tier you want a player from and count how many names are still in it. Then work out how many picks happen before your next turn.
If eight names are left in that tier and only fourteen picks separate you from your next one, some of those eight will still be there. You can spend this pick somewhere else and come back. If two names are left, they will be gone, and now you have a real decision: pay for one of them now, or accept the drop to the next tier.
That is the entire method. The question stops being which player is ranked highest and becomes which cliff you are about to fall off, and which one you can still walk back from.
Where it saves you: the positional run
Four running backs go in five picks and the room tenses up. Everyone feels behind, and the next three drafters take a running back they had not planned on. This is the single most common way a draft gets away from people.
Tiers answer it directly. If the run has emptied the running back tier you wanted, the players left are from the tier below, and reaching for one is exactly the mistake. Meanwhile the run means nobody has been taking receivers, so a receiver from a tier you rate highly may have slid to you. The run created value somewhere else in the room, and counting is how you see it while everyone else is panicking.
Scarcity is not a reason to reach
Positional scarcity gets misused constantly. It does not mean "draft this position early". It means the drop-off at that position arrives sooner, so the cost of waiting is higher there than elsewhere. Running back tends to feel scarce because the workload concentrates in fewer players; receiver usually stays deeper further into the middle rounds.
A weak player does not become a good pick because his position is thinning out. If the remaining names at a scarce position are all from a tier you do not want, the answer is to take the better player elsewhere and solve that position later, not to buy the best of a bad group at full price.
Tiers do not transfer across positions
A tier 1 quarterback and a tier 1 running back are not worth the same thing, and tier 2 receivers can be worth more than tier 2 backs. The number labels a group within its own position; it is not a currency you can spend across the board. Compare the size of the drop you are avoiding, not the tier numbers.
How this page fits
The lists above are the tier idea aimed at one specific question. A steal is a player whose cliff sits well below where the room is drafting them, which is another way of saying you can wait on him and still get the tier. A fade is the reverse: you are being asked to pay a tier early. Working out where the cliffs are is the job; this page does the arithmetic for the format you picked.
If you want the tiers themselves rather than the ends of the list, the rankings board carries a tier on every player, and On The Clock does the counting for you during a live draft, including calling out a run while it is happening.
And if you would rather draw the cliffs yourself, you can build your own rankings by picking between two players at a time, then mark a tier break wherever you see one.
Draft day
What to do with this on draft day
Do not reach for a steal
A player on the steals list is worth having because he lasts. Taking him two rounds before his ADP throws away the entire reason he is on the list. Note the pick he usually goes at, take him a few picks before that, and spend the earlier rounds on players whose price and value already agree.
Swings are supposed to fail
The late-round swings have thinner evidence than the steals, and that is the point of a late pick. One of them hitting pays for the rest missing. Take two or three of them at the end of a draft; do not build a starting lineup out of them.
A fade is not a warning about the player
Nobody on the fades list is bad. Each of them is priced ahead of what our board says he is worth, which usually means the room is paying for last season, for name recognition, or for a role that has not been confirmed. If one falls a round or two past his ADP, he stops being a fade and becomes a fine pick.
Format changes the answer more than people expect
Switching between the formats above is not cosmetic. A superflex league needs twice as many starting quarterbacks, which moves every quarterback and, because the picks have to come from somewhere, every other position too. A tight end premium does the same thing to tight ends. Read the list for the league you are actually in.
When your board falls apart
Runs happen. Three teams take a quarterback in four picks and the plan you wrote down stops applying. The useful habit is to stop thinking about the position you meant to fill and go back to the question this whole page is built on: which player available right now is furthest ahead of where he should be going. That is usually not the position that just ran.
Questions
Draft day questions, answered
What makes a player a steal instead of a fade?
A steal is a player whose cliff sits well below where the room is drafting them, so you can wait and still get the tier. A fade is the reverse: the room is paying an earlier pick than our board says they are worth.
What is a tier break?
It is the gap between the last player in one tier and the first player in the next, the point where players stop being roughly interchangeable and start being a real downgrade. The rankings board carries a tier on every player if you want to see the breaks directly.
Does the board change for dynasty and superflex leagues?
Yes. Switching formats with the picker above the lists reprices every player, and a superflex league moves quarterbacks earlier because it needs twice as many starters at the position, which pushes every other position too.
Can I use this list during my live draft?
Yes. On The Clock runs the same comparison live inside your Sleeper draft and flags a player falling past his slot while you are still on the clock.
Sources
Where these numbers come from
Values are FF Beacon's own, rebuilt daily. Projections are Sleeper's weekly numbers, rescored under each format's rules rather than read off a generic column, so a tight end premium actually counts. Reliability comes from how often each player has beaten his own weekly projection in seasons we have graded. The market side is public ADP, plus a second read from the real Sleeper drafts synced through League Pulse and On The Clock.
Everything here is free. The full rankings board shows every player rather than the ends of the list, and On The Clock runs the same comparison live inside your Sleeper draft.