GuideAug 12, 2026Board rebuilt Aug 12, 2026, 6:35 PM EDT

The draft guide: who the room is late on

The short version

We work out where each player should come off the board in Dynasty PPR SF, using what he is worth as an asset and how many points he projects above the last starter a league actually needs at his position. Then we compare that to Sleeper dynasty superflex ADP. The players below are the ones where those two numbers disagree most, in both directions.

How the gap is worked out

Comparing a ranking to an ADP straight across does not work, and it fails in a way that looks convincing. A ranking places every player against every other player. An ADP prices scarcity. In a one-quarterback league nobody spends pick 50 on the eighth-best quarterback no matter how good he is, so those two numbers disagree about every quarterback, every year, and a naive comparison hands you a list of them and calls it a discovery.

So we put both sides in the same unit before comparing them. For each position we work out how many starters a league actually needs, including its share of the flex, and find what the last of those starters projects to score. Everything above that line is a real edge; everything below it is replaceable. That gives an order of preference, which we then lay over the pick slots the market genuinely spends. The result is a pick number for every player: where he would go if the room drafted the same names in our order.

The gap is that pick number against Sleeper dynasty superflex ADP. Positive means he lasts longer than we would wait. Two more things shape the list. Every player carries a confidence score that falls away as both numbers get less reliable, so a name 300 picks deep cannot top the board on the strength of two guesses disagreeing. And each position has its own median gap subtracted before ranking, because a model-wide argument about whether quarterbacks go too late is a strategy question, not something to repeat in thirty rows.

Steals

Players our board wants earlier than the room takes them, measured against how the room prices their position, and only where we have enough data on both sides to mean it.

Chig Okonkwo
TEWashington CommandersSteal
Goes at
181
We'd take
118
Lasts 63 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 181 (round 16) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 118, and he lasts 63 picks longer than that. He projects 13 points above a replacement TE over the season. Beats his weekly projection 58% of the time.
Pts vs replacement TE
13 over
Beats projection
58%
Confidence
High
Stefon Diggs
WRFree agentSteal
Goes at
202
We'd take
146
Lasts 56 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 202 (round 17) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 146, and he lasts 56 picks longer than that. He projects 6 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 55% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
6 over
Beats projection
55%
Confidence
High
Jaylen Warren
RBPittsburgh SteelersSteal
Goes at
117
We'd take
81
Lasts 36 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 117 (round 10) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 81, and he lasts 36 picks longer than that. He projects 63 points above a replacement RB over the season. Beats his weekly projection 48% of the time.
Pts vs replacement RB
63 over
Beats projection
48%
Confidence
High
Parker Washington
WRJacksonville JaguarsSteal
Goes at
111
We'd take
75
Lasts 36 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 111 (round 10) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 75, and he lasts 36 picks longer than that. He projects 39 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 71% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
39 over
Beats projection
71%
Confidence
High
Josh Downs
WRIndianapolis ColtsSteal
Goes at
139
We'd take
107
Lasts 32 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 139 (round 12) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 107, and he lasts 32 picks longer than that. He projects 24 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 55% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
24 over
Beats projection
55%
Confidence
High
Jayden Reed
WRGreen Bay PackersSteal
Goes at
136
We'd take
105
Lasts 31 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 136 (round 12) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 105, and he lasts 31 picks longer than that. He projects 43 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 53% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
43 over
Beats projection
53%
Confidence
High
DeVonta Smith
WRPhiladelphia EaglesSteal
Goes at
74
We'd take
44
Lasts 30 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 74 (round 7) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 44, and he lasts 30 picks longer than that. He projects 84 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 45% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
84 over
Beats projection
45%
Confidence
High
Travis Kelce
TEKansas City ChiefsSteal
Goes at
170
We'd take
138
Lasts 32 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 170 (round 15) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 138, and he lasts 32 picks longer than that. He projects 38 points above a replacement TE over the season. Beats his weekly projection 40% of the time.
Pts vs replacement TE
38 over
Beats projection
40%
Confidence
High
Zay Flowers
WRBaltimore RavensSteal
Goes at
67
We'd take
39
Lasts 28 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 67 (round 6) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 39, and he lasts 28 picks longer than that. He projects 83 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 49% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
83 over
Beats projection
49%
Confidence
High
Quentin Johnston
WRLos Angeles ChargersSteal
Goes at
122
We'd take
96
Lasts 27 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 122 (round 11) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 96, and he lasts 27 picks longer than that. He projects 26 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 72% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
26 over
Beats projection
72%
Confidence
High
D'Andre Swift
RBChicago BearsSteal
Goes at
100
We'd take
76
Lasts 24 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 100 (round 9) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 76, and he lasts 24 picks longer than that. He projects 52 points above a replacement RB over the season. Beats his weekly projection 40% of the time.
Pts vs replacement RB
52 over
Beats projection
40%
Confidence
High
Rhamondre Stevenson
RBNew England PatriotsSteal
Goes at
135
We'd take
112
Lasts 23 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 135 (round 12) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 112, and he lasts 23 picks longer than that. He projects 37 points above a replacement RB over the season. Beats his weekly projection 51% of the time.
Pts vs replacement RB
37 over
Beats projection
51%
Confidence
High

Late-round swings

Available after pick 100, projects above a replacement starter, and the read is thinner. These are darts, and they are supposed to be.

Davante Adams
WRLos Angeles RamsLate swing
Goes at
105
We'd take
91
Lasts 14 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 105 (round 9) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 91, and he lasts 14 picks longer than that. He projects 46 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 50% of the time. A dart throw, not a plan.
Pts vs replacement WR
46 over
Beats projection
50%
Confidence
High
David Montgomery
RBHouston TexansLate swing
Goes at
109
We'd take
99
Lasts 10 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 109 (round 10) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 99, and he lasts 10 picks longer than that. He projects 46 points above a replacement RB over the season. Beats his weekly projection 44% of the time. A dart throw, not a plan.
Pts vs replacement RB
46 over
Beats projection
44%
Confidence
High
Chris Godwin
WRTampa Bay BuccaneersLate swing
Goes at
142
We'd take
130
Lasts 11 picks longer than we would wait
Goes around pick 142 (round 12) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 130, and he lasts 11 picks longer than that. He projects 7 points above a replacement WR over the season. Beats his weekly projection 48% of the time. A dart throw, not a plan.
Pts vs replacement WR
7 over
Beats projection
48%
Confidence
High

Fades

The other direction. The room is spending earlier on these players than our board says they are worth.

Trey Benson
RBArizona CardinalsFade
Goes at
156
We'd take
264
Goes 108 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 156 (round 14) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 264, so the room is spending 108 picks too early on him. He projects 148 points below a replacement RB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 45% of the time.
Pts vs replacement RB
148 under
Beats projection
45%
Confidence
High
Brandon Aiyuk
WRSan Francisco 49ersFade
Goes at
156
We'd take
255
Goes 99 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 156 (round 13) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 255, so the room is spending 99 picks too early on him. He projects 153 points below a replacement WR, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 33% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
153 under
Beats projection
33%
Confidence
High
J.J. McCarthy
QBMinnesota VikingsFade
Goes at
152
We'd take
246
Goes 94 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 152 (round 13) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 246, so the room is spending 94 picks too early on him. He projects 238 points below a replacement QB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 33% of the time.
Pts vs replacement QB
238 under
Beats projection
33%
Confidence
High
Anthony Richardson
QBIndianapolis ColtsFade
Goes at
183
We'd take
267
Goes 84 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 183 (round 16) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 267, so the room is spending 84 picks too early on him. He projects 241 points below a replacement QB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 60% of the time.
Pts vs replacement QB
241 under
Beats projection
60%
Confidence
High
Mason Taylor
TENew York JetsFade
Goes at
138
We'd take
200
Goes 62 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 138 (round 12) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 200, so the room is spending 62 picks too early on him. He projects 106 points below a replacement TE, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 25% of the time.
Pts vs replacement TE
106 under
Beats projection
25%
Confidence
High
Mac Jones
QBSan Francisco 49ersFade
Goes at
182
We'd take
258
Goes 76 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 182 (round 16) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 258, so the room is spending 76 picks too early on him. He projects 224 points below a replacement QB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 52% of the time.
Pts vs replacement QB
224 under
Beats projection
52%
Confidence
High
Theo Johnson
TENew York GiantsFade
Goes at
175
We'd take
230
Goes 55 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 175 (round 15) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 230, so the room is spending 56 picks too early on him. He projects 113 points below a replacement TE, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 41% of the time.
Pts vs replacement TE
113 under
Beats projection
41%
Confidence
High
Kaleb Johnson
RBPittsburgh SteelersFade
Goes at
199
We'd take
258
Goes 59 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 199 (round 17) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 258, so the room is spending 59 picks too early on him. He projects 156 points below a replacement RB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 11% of the time.
Pts vs replacement RB
156 under
Beats projection
11%
Confidence
High
Michael Penix
QBAtlanta FalconsFade
Goes at
150
We'd take
211
Goes 61 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 150 (round 13) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 211, so the room is spending 61 picks too early on him. He projects 173 points below a replacement QB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 18% of the time.
Pts vs replacement QB
173 under
Beats projection
18%
Confidence
High
Oronde Gadsden
TELos Angeles ChargersFade
Goes at
86
We'd take
124
Goes 38 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 86 (round 8) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 124, so the room is spending 38 picks too early on him. He projects 40 points below a replacement TE, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 40% of the time.
Pts vs replacement TE
40 under
Beats projection
40%
Confidence
High
Ricky Pearsall
WRSan Francisco 49ersFade
Goes at
101
We'd take
141
Goes 39 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 101 (round 9) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 141, so the room is spending 39 picks too early on him. He projects 29 points below a replacement WR, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 59% of the time.
Pts vs replacement WR
29 under
Beats projection
59%
Confidence
High
Tyler Allgeier
RBArizona CardinalsFade
Goes at
121
We'd take
163
Goes 42 picks before we would take him
Goes around pick 121 (round 11) in Dynasty PPR SF. We would take him around 163, so the room is spending 42 picks too early on him. He projects 100 points below a replacement RB, so the case is the asset rather than the lineup. Beats his weekly projection 45% of the time.
Pts vs replacement RB
100 under
Beats projection
45%
Confidence
High

Tier-based drafting, explained properly

A ranking list is a single file: player 14, player 15, player 16, all the way down. It looks precise, and that is the problem. Nobody can honestly tell you the 15th best player is better than the 16th. What they can tell you is that a group of six players are all roughly the same, and then there is a real drop.

Tiers are that idea written down. Instead of one list of a hundred names you get maybe twelve groups, and inside a group the order barely matters. Between groups it matters a lot. That single change is what turns a ranking into something you can actually draft off.

The cliff is the whole point

The gap between the last player in one tier and the first player in the next is called a tier break, and people also call it a cliff, which is the more useful word. Inside a tier you are choosing between players who will probably finish near each other. Step over the break and you are taking a genuine downgrade.

So the rule that falls out of it: taking any player from the tier you are in is fine, even the one ranked lowest in it. Reaching across a break to take someone from a tier below is the move to avoid, and it is the one a plain ranking list quietly encourages, because on a flat list a two-spot difference looks the same everywhere.

Counting is the skill

Here is the habit that makes tiers pay off, and it takes about four seconds per pick. When you are on the clock, look at the tier you want a player from and count how many names are still in it. Then work out how many picks happen before your next turn.

If eight names are left in that tier and only fourteen picks separate you from your next one, some of those eight will still be there. You can spend this pick somewhere else and come back. If two names are left, they will be gone, and now you have a real decision: pay for one of them now, or accept the drop to the next tier.

That is the entire method. The question stops being which player is ranked highest and becomes which cliff you are about to fall off, and which one you can still walk back from.

Where it saves you: the positional run

Four running backs go in five picks and the room tenses up. Everyone feels behind, and the next three drafters take a running back they had not planned on. This is the single most common way a draft gets away from people.

Tiers answer it directly. If the run has emptied the running back tier you wanted, the players left are from the tier below, and reaching for one is exactly the mistake. Meanwhile the run means nobody has been taking receivers, so a receiver from a tier you rate highly may have slid to you. The run created value somewhere else in the room, and counting is how you see it while everyone else is panicking.

Scarcity is not a reason to reach

Positional scarcity gets misused constantly. It does not mean "draft this position early". It means the drop-off at that position arrives sooner, so the cost of waiting is higher there than elsewhere. Running back tends to feel scarce because the workload concentrates in fewer players; receiver usually stays deeper further into the middle rounds.

A weak player does not become a good pick because his position is thinning out. If the remaining names at a scarce position are all from a tier you do not want, the answer is to take the better player elsewhere and solve that position later, not to buy the best of a bad group at full price.

Tiers do not transfer across positions

A tier 1 quarterback and a tier 1 running back are not worth the same thing, and tier 2 receivers can be worth more than tier 2 backs. The number labels a group within its own position; it is not a currency you can spend across the board. Compare the size of the drop you are avoiding, not the tier numbers.

How this page fits

The lists above are the tier idea aimed at one specific question. A steal is a player whose cliff sits well below where the room is drafting him, which is another way of saying you can wait on him and still get the tier. A fade is the reverse: you are being asked to pay a tier early. Working out where the cliffs are is the job; this page does the arithmetic for the format you picked.

If you want the tiers themselves rather than the ends of the list, the rankings board carries a tier on every player, and On The Clock does the counting for you during a live draft, including calling out a run while it is happening.

What to do with this on draft day

Do not reach for a steal

A player on the steals list is worth having because he lasts. Taking him two rounds before his ADP throws away the entire reason he is on the list. Note the pick he usually goes at, take him a few picks before that, and spend the earlier rounds on players whose price and value already agree.

Swings are supposed to fail

The late-round swings have thinner evidence than the steals, and that is the point of a late pick. One of them hitting pays for the rest missing. Take two or three of them at the end of a draft; do not build a starting lineup out of them.

A fade is not a warning about the player

Nobody on the fades list is bad. Each of them is priced ahead of what our board says he is worth, which usually means the room is paying for last season, for name recognition, or for a role that has not been confirmed. If one falls a round or two past his ADP, he stops being a fade and becomes a fine pick.

Format changes the answer more than people expect

Switching between the formats above is not cosmetic. A superflex league needs twice as many starting quarterbacks, which moves every quarterback and, because the picks have to come from somewhere, every other position too. A tight end premium does the same thing to tight ends. Read the list for the league you are actually in.

When your board falls apart

Runs happen. Three teams take a quarterback in four picks and the plan you wrote down stops applying. The useful habit is to stop thinking about the position you meant to fill and go back to the question this whole page is built on: which player available right now is furthest ahead of where he should be going. That is usually not the position that just ran.

Where these numbers come from

Values are FF Beacon's own, rebuilt daily. Projections are Sleeper's weekly numbers, rescored under each format's rules rather than read off a generic column, so a tight end premium actually counts. Reliability comes from how often each player has beaten his own weekly projection in seasons we have graded. The market side is public ADP, plus a second read from the real Sleeper drafts synced through League Pulse and On The Clock.

Everything here is free. The full rankings board shows every player rather than the ends of the list, and On The Clock runs the same comparison live inside your Sleeper draft.