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The Beacon Brief

Week 4 Fantasy Football News and Injuries (2026): Lamar, Saquon and Chase go down

Week 4, 2026Sep 29 to Oct 6, 2026Dynasty PPR SF and Redraft 1QB PPR

By , founder of FF Beacon. Published .

Covers Sep 29 to Oct 6, 2026. Values and ranks are Dynasty PPR SF and Redraft 1QB PPR on FF Beacon.

Week 4, part 1 of 6

Week 4 in numbers: McMillan, six upsets and a bad week for favourites

Tetairoa McMillan had the best line of the week at 45.2 PPR points, 14 catches for 192 yards and two touchdowns in a Sunday night upset of Detroit, and he also beat his projection by more than anyone, 29.3 points. Three players led their positions: Drake Maye at quarterback with 27.2, Kyren Williams at running back with 36.7, and T.J. Hockenson at tight end with 24.9 on 13 catches from 13 targets. CeeDee Lamb was second overall at 41.3.

It was a poor week to lay points. Six teams won outright as moneyline underdogs, led by New England at +275 in Buffalo, and Atlanta won by 21 on Monday night as a 1.5-point underdog. Favourites covered only four of the sixteen spreads, and Seattle against the Chargers landed exactly on 7 for a push. Ten of sixteen games went over the total, and Atlanta and New Orleans combined for 69 points, 21.5 more than the line. The biggest miss of a projection belonged to Parker Washington, projected for 17.2 and held to 2.0. On values, Tyler Shough rose 631 in Dynasty PPR SF, the largest gain of anyone who played, and Omarion Hampton fell 1,182, the largest drop.

Week 4 in numbers

McMillan led the week at 45.2 and beat his projection by 29.3, and New England won the biggest upset at +275 in Buffalo.

Computed . Built from the game-by-game tables below.

Week 4 top scorers by position

Tetairoa McMillan led all players with 45.2 PPR points; Drake Maye, Kyren Williams and T.J. Hockenson led their positions.

QB

  1. 1

    Drake MayeNE vs BUF

    22 of 37, 269 passing yards, 3 TD, 1 INT; 8 carries, 54 rushing yards; 1 lost fumble; 100% of snaps

    27.2 PPR

    Half 27.2Standard 27.2
  2. 2

    Joe BurrowCIN vs JAX

    39 of 54, 428 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT; 3 carries, 6 rushing yards, 1 TD; 100% of snaps

    25.7 PPR

    Half 25.7Standard 25.7
  3. 3

    Aaron RodgersPIT vs CLE

    22 of 40, 299 passing yards, 3 TD, 2 INT; 100% of snaps

    24.0 PPR

    Half 24.0Standard 24.0
  4. 4

    Kirk CousinsLV vs KC

    31 of 52, 365 passing yards, 2 TD, 1 INT; 100% of snaps

    23.6 PPR

    Half 23.6Standard 23.6
  5. 5

    C.J. StroudHOU vs DAL

    21 of 31, 347 passing yards, 2 TD; 2 carries, 12 rushing yards; 100% of snaps

    23.1 PPR

    Half 23.1Standard 23.1
  6. 6

    Bryce YoungCAR vs DET

    29 of 41, 329 passing yards, 2 TD; 3 carries, 3 rushing yards; 100% of snaps

    21.5 PPR

    Half 21.5Standard 21.5

In rank order, by PPR points.

Computed . Week 4 box scores, ranked by PPR points. Half PPR and standard totals are shown beside them.

Week 4, part 2 of 6

Game by game: every final, the line it beat, and who scored

Each card below is one game: the final, the closing line and whether the favourite covered, the score the line implied against the score that happened, the best fantasy lines on both sides graded against the Sleeper projection, and whose value moved. Underdogs covered eleven of sixteen spreads, which is the week in one number.

Four reports sit behind the cards: CeeDee Lamb's career-high 17 catches, Kenneth Walker's 537 rushing yards through four weeks, the most by a Chief in that span, Bijan Robinson's Monday night scrimmage average, and Atlanta scoring 40.0 points a game with Michael Penix against 8.0 with Cooper Rush.

Every game of week 4

Six moneyline underdogs won outright, underdogs covered eleven of sixteen spreads, and ten games went over the total.

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson drives Cleveland to a 56-yard winner on Thursday night

    Kickoff Oct 1, 2026, 8:15 PM EDT

    Final: Steelers24atBrowns27

    Closing spread
    Steelers -2.5
    Against the spread
    Browns covered +2.5
    Total
    38.5Over, 51 scored; opened 40.5
    Moneyline
    Steelers -148,Browns +124
    Expected score
    Steelers 20.5,Browns 18Implied by the closing line
    Actual score
    Steelers 24,Browns 27The underdog won outright

    Cleveland led 21 to 7 late in the first half, let Pittsburgh tie it at 24 with 1:44 left, and won it on Andre Szmyt's 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds to go. The Browns closed as 2.5-point underdogs, so they won outright, and 51 points blew through a 38.5 total by 12.5. Quinshon Judkins was the fantasy line on the Cleveland side, 21.6 PPR points on 17 carries and six catches, double his 10.8 projection. Deshaun Watson threw for 268 yards and a touchdown. For Pittsburgh, DK Metcalf had 115 receiving yards and Roman Wilson scored on three catches, while Jaylen Warren ran for 93 yards and fell short of an 18.6 projection without a touchdown.

    Fun stat, Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

    Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdowns for 24.0 PPR points, the third-best quarterback line of the week, and still lost on an interception at the Browns 18 with one second left.

    Aaron Rodgers: 22 of 40, 299 passing yards, 3 TD, 2 INT, 24.0 PPR points.

    Top fantasy lines, Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns, against the projection

    1. Aaron RodgersQB, PIT

      22 of 40, 299 passing yards, 3 TD, 2 INT

      24.0 PPR

      Projected 13.8
      +10.2 against the projection
    2. Quinshon JudkinsRB, CLE

      17 carries, 53 rushing yards, 1 TD; 6 catches on 7 targets, 43 receiving yards

      21.6 PPR

      Projected 10.8
      +10.8 against the projection
    3. DK MetcalfWR, PIT

      5 catches on 9 targets, 115 receiving yards

      16.5 PPR

      Projected 9.6
      +6.9 against the projection
    4. Roman WilsonWR, PIT

      3 catches on 6 targets, 74 receiving yards, 1 TD

      16.4 PPR

      Projected 5.2
      +11.2 against the projection
    5. Deshaun WatsonQB, CLE

      24 of 33, 268 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 7 carries, 22 rushing yards; 1 lost fumble

      13.9 PPR

      Projected 15.0
      -1.1 against the projection
    6. Denzel BostonWR, CLE

      4 catches on 7 targets, 89 receiving yards

      12.9 PPR

      Projected 10.6
      +2.3 against the projection

    Value risers

    Value fallers

    Back to every game

  2. Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders: Jonathan Taylor runs through a Washington team down to its third quarterback

    Kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 9:30 AM EDT

    Final: Colts30atCommanders13

    Closing spread
    Colts -4.5Opened Commanders -1.5
    Against the spread
    Colts covered -4.5
    Total
    46.5Under, 43 scored; opened 48.5
    Moneyline
    Colts -225,Commanders +185
    Expected score
    Colts 25.5,Commanders 21Implied by the closing line
    Actual score
    Colts 30,Commanders 13

    Washington was without Jayden Daniels, then lost Marcus Mariota to a knee injury on its first possession, and rookie Athan Kaliakmanis played the rest of the game in London. Indianapolis covered the 4.5-point line comfortably, 30 to 13, and the game stayed under its 46.5 total. Jonathan Taylor carried it 20 times for 95 yards and scored from 5 yards twice for 22.7 PPR points, right on his 21.7 projection. The passing game gave fantasy managers nothing: Daniel Jones threw for 143 yards and scored 8.9 points against a 16.7 projection, and Tyler Warren caught five passes for 41 yards.

    Fun stat, Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders

    Athan Kaliakmanis had no projection at all on Sunday morning and finished with 12.0 PPR points and a touchdown pass after replacing Mariota in the first quarter.

    Athan Kaliakmanis: 15 of 33, 186 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 3 carries, 16 rushing yards, 12.0 PPR points.

    Top fantasy lines, Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders, against the projection

    1. Jonathan TaylorRB, IND

      20 carries, 95 rushing yards, 2 TD; 1 catch on 4 targets, 2 receiving yards

      22.7 PPR

      Projected 21.7
      +1.0 against the projection
    2. Athan KaliakmanisQB, WAS

      15 of 33, 186 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 3 carries, 16 rushing yards

      12.0 PPR

      No projection
    3. Treylon BurksWR, WAS

      1 catch on 3 targets, 47 receiving yards, 1 TD

      11.7 PPR

      Projected 3.4
      +8.3 against the projection
    4. Dyami BrownWR, WAS

      3 catches on 4 targets, 65 receiving yards

      9.5 PPR

      Projected 2.1
      +7.4 against the projection
    5. Laquon TreadwellWR, IND

      5 catches on 6 targets, 42 receiving yards

      9.2 PPR

      Projected 8.3
      +0.9 against the projection
    6. Tyler WarrenTE, IND

      5 catches on 5 targets, 41 receiving yards

      9.1 PPR

      Projected 12.6
      -3.5 against the projection

    Value risers

    Nobody in this game gained value over the week.

    Value fallers

    Back to every game

  3. Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore wins but loses Lamar Jackson to an ankle at halftime

    Kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT

    Final: Titans18atRavens24

    Closing spread
    Ravens -11.5Opened Ravens -8.5
    Against the spread
    Titans covered +11.5
    Total
    41.5Over, 42 scored; opened 47.5
    Moneyline
    Titans +550,Ravens -800
    Expected score
    Titans 15,Ravens 26.5Implied by the closing line
    Actual score
    Titans 18,Ravens 24

    Lamar Jackson completed 15 of 20 for 222 yards and two touchdowns in the first half, was sacked on one of the last plays before the break, and did not return; he left the stadium in a walking boot. Baltimore won 24 to 18, but Tennessee covered an 11.5-point line that had moved three points toward the Ravens during the week, and the game went over its 41.5 total. Zay Flowers scored 25.8 PPR points on 118 yards and a touchdown, and Derrick Henry scored against his old team on 23 carries for 73 yards. Tyler Huntley finished the game for Baltimore.

    Fun stat, Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

    Rookie Carnell Tate caught nine of 12 targets for 145 yards and scored 21.5 PPR points, more than double his 10.0-point projection.

    Carnell Tate: 9 catches on 12 targets, 145 receiving yards; 1 lost fumble, 21.5 PPR points.

    Top fantasy lines, Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens, against the projection

    1. Zay FlowersWR, BAL

      8 catches on 10 targets, 118 receiving yards, 1 TD

      25.8 PPR

      Projected 16.1
      +9.7 against the projection
    2. Carnell TateWR, TEN

      9 catches on 12 targets, 145 receiving yards; 1 lost fumble

      21.5 PPR

      Projected 10.0
      +11.5 against the projection
    3. Lamar JacksonQB, BAL

      15 of 20, 222 passing yards, 2 TD; 2 carries, 20 rushing yards

      18.9 PPR

      Projected 21.8
      -2.9 against the projection
    4. Cam WardQB, TEN

      20 of 31, 222 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 4 carries, 27 rushing yards

      16.6 PPR

      Projected 12.9
      +3.7 against the projection
    5. Derrick HenryRB, BAL

      23 carries, 73 rushing yards, 1 TD; 2 catches on 2 targets, 6 receiving yards

      15.9 PPR

      Projected 19.4
      -3.5 against the projection
    6. Tony PollardRB, TEN

      16 carries, 48 rushing yards, 1 TD; 2 catches on 4 targets, 2 receiving yards

      13.0 PPR

      Projected 9.4
      +3.6 against the projection

    Value risers

    Value fallers

    Back to every game

  4. New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: Drake Maye and New England upset Buffalo as a 7-point underdog

    Kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT

    Final: Patriots29atBills26

    Closing spread
    Bills -7Opened Bills -3
    Against the spread
    Patriots covered +7
    Total
    49.5Over, 55 scored
    Moneyline
    Patriots +275,Bills -345
    Expected score
    Patriots 21.3,Bills 28.3Implied by the closing line
    Actual score
    Patriots 29,Bills 26The underdog won outright

    The upset of the week: New England won 29 to 26 at Buffalo as a +275 underdog, after the line moved from Bills minus 3 to minus 7. Drake Maye led all quarterbacks with 27.2 PPR points, 269 yards and three touchdowns plus 54 rushing yards, and hit Rhamondre Stevenson on a two-point conversion with 1:50 left. Romeo Doubs caught two of the touchdowns. Josh Allen scored 19.5 against a 23.4 projection, James Cook ran for 75 yards and a touchdown, and DJ Moore left with a shoulder injury after one catch. The game went over its 49.5 total.

    Fun stat, New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

    Keon Coleman was projected for 4.8 points and scored 23.6, catching six of seven targets for 116 yards and a touchdown with DJ Moore out of the game.

    Keon Coleman: 6 catches on 7 targets, 116 receiving yards, 1 TD, 23.6 PPR points.

    Top fantasy lines, New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, against the projection

    1. Drake MayeQB, NE

      22 of 37, 269 passing yards, 3 TD, 1 INT; 8 carries, 54 rushing yards; 1 lost fumble

      27.2 PPR

      Projected 17.8
      +9.4 against the projection
    2. Romeo DoubsWR, NE

      6 catches on 9 targets, 58 receiving yards, 2 TD

      23.8 PPR

      Projected 9.0
      +14.8 against the projection
    3. Keon ColemanWR, BUF

      6 catches on 7 targets, 116 receiving yards, 1 TD

      23.6 PPR

      Projected 4.8
      +18.8 against the projection
    4. Josh AllenQB, BUF

      23 of 33, 253 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 5 carries, 4 rushing yards, 1 TD

      19.5 PPR

      Projected 23.4
      -3.9 against the projection
    5. Rhamondre StevensonRB, NE

      13 carries, 47 rushing yards, 1 TD; 3 catches on 5 targets, 27 receiving yards

      18.4 PPR

      Projected 12.7
      +5.7 against the projection
    6. James CookRB, BUF

      12 carries, 75 rushing yards, 1 TD; 2 catches on 2 targets, 8 receiving yards

      16.3 PPR

      Projected 17.3
      -1.0 against the projection

    Value risers

    Nobody in this game gained value over the week.

    Value fallers

    • Drake MayeDynasty PPR SF -916, Redraft 1QB PPR -846
    • James CookDynasty PPR SF -669, Redraft 1QB PPR -503

    Back to every game

  5. New York Jets at Chicago Bears: Kyle Monangai takes 30 carries and the Bears backfield

    Kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT

    Final: Jets12atBears23

    Closing spread
    Bears -3.5Opened Bears -8.5
    Against the spread
    Bears covered -3.5
    Total
    43.5Under, 35 scored; opened 45.5
    Moneyline
    Jets +164,Bears -198
    Expected score
    Jets 20,Bears 23.5Implied by the closing line
    Actual score
    Jets 12,Bears 23

    Chicago covered the 3.5-point closing line, 23 to 12, in a game that finished 8.5 points under its total, and the story for fantasy was the backfield. Kyle Monangai carried 30 times for 146 yards and scored from 1 and 5 yards, the most attempts of his career, while D'Andre Swift lost a fumble and finished with 7.4 PPR points against a 16.3 projection. Tyson Bagent started at quarterback and threw for 268 yards without a touchdown. Rome Odunze led the receivers with 94 yards. For New York, Garrett Wilson caught three passes for 27 yards against an 18.8 projection.

    Fun stat, New York Jets at Chicago Bears

    Kyle Monangai was projected for 8.3 points and scored 28.0, the fourth-best running back line of the week, on 30 carries.

    Kyle Monangai: 30 carries, 146 rushing yards, 2 TD; 1 catch on 1 target, 4 receiving yards, 28.0 PPR points.

    Top fantasy lines, New York Jets at Chicago Bears, against the projection

    1. Kyle MonangaiRB, CHI

      30 carries, 146 rushing yards, 2 TD; 1 catch on 1 target, 4 receiving yards

      28.0 PPR

      Projected 8.3
      +19.7 against the projection
    2. Rome OdunzeWR, CHI

      6 catches on 7 targets, 94 receiving yards

      15.4 PPR

      Projected 8.6
      +6.8 against the projection
    3. Isaiah WilliamsWR, NYJ

      2 catches on 3 targets, 73 receiving yards, 1 TD

      15.3 PPR

      Projected 6.9
      +8.4 against the projection
    4. Colston LovelandTE, CHI

      6 catches on 9 targets, 57 receiving yards

      11.7 PPR

      Projected 10.4
      +1.3 against the projection
    5. Geno SmithQB, NYJ

      8 of 15, 119 passing yards, 1 TD

      8.8 PPR

      Projected 14.9
      -6.1 against the projection
    6. Braelon AllenRB, NYJ

      14 carries, 59 rushing yards; 2 catches on 2 targets, 8 receiving yards

      8.7 PPR

      Projected 12.8
      -4.1 against the projection

    Value risers

    Value fallers

    Back to every game

  6. Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals: Jacksonville wins after Ja'Marr Chase leaves with a concussion

    Kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT

    Final: Jaguars22atBengals17

    Closing spread
    Bengals -2.5
    Against the spread
    Jaguars covered +2.5
    Total
    51.5Under, 39 scored
    Moneyline
    Jaguars +124,Bengals -148
    Expected score
    Jaguars 24.5,Bengals 27Implied by the closing line
    Actual score
    Jaguars 22,Bengals 17The underdog won outright

    Ja'Marr Chase caught three passes for 27 yards before a second-quarter hit put him in the concussion protocol, and Cincinnati lost 22 to 17 as a 2.5-point favourite, well under a 51.5 total. Joe Burrow threw 54 times for 428 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions and ran one in for 25.7 PPR points. With Chase out, Tee Higgins caught 11 of 16 targets for 157 yards and Chase Brown caught all 11 of his targets. Higgins later hurt an adductor. For Jacksonville, Brenton Strange caught seven passes for 95 yards and Chris Rodriguez scored from 25 yards.

    Fun stat, Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

    Parker Washington had the biggest miss of any projection this week, 17.2 projected and 2.0 scored on one catch for 7 yards, and his Redraft 1QB PPR value still rose 697.

    Parker Washington: 1 catch on 3 targets, 7 receiving yards; 1 carry, 3 rushing yards, 2.0 PPR points.

    Top fantasy lines, Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals, against the projection

    1. Tee HigginsWR, CIN

      11 catches on 16 targets, 157 receiving yards

      26.7 PPR

      Projected 16.6
      +10.1 against the projection
    2. Joe BurrowQB, CIN

      39 of 54, 428 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT; 3 carries, 6 rushing yards, 1 TD

      25.7 PPR

      Projected 19.6
      +6.1 against the projection
    3. Chase BrownRB, CIN

      9 carries, 10 rushing yards; 11 catches on 11 targets, 71 receiving yards

      19.1 PPR

      Projected 17.4
      +1.7 against the projection
    4. Brenton StrangeTE, JAX

      7 catches on 8 targets, 95 receiving yards

      16.5 PPR

      Projected 9.9
      +6.6 against the projection
    5. Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX

      18 of 23, 227 passing yards, 1 TD; 3 carries, 0 rushing yards

      13.1 PPR

      Projected 20.5
      -7.4 against the projection
    6. Bhayshul TutenRB, JAX

      17 carries, 73 rushing yards; 2 catches on 2 targets, 18 receiving yards

      11.1 PPR

      Projected 12.7
      -1.6 against the projection

    Value risers

    Value fallers

    Back to every game

  7. Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans: CeeDee Lamb catches 17 passes and the winner with 40 seconds left

    Kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT

    Final: Cowboys34atTexans30

    Closing spread
    Texans -3Opened Texans -2.5
    Against the spread
    Cowboys covered +3
    Total
    48.5Over, 64 scored; opened 47.5
    Moneyline
    Cowboys +130,Texans -155
    Expected score
    Cowboys 22.8,Texans 25.8Implied by the closing line
    Actual score
    Cowboys 34,Texans 30The underdog won outright

    Dallas won 34 to 30 in Houston as a 3-point underdog, the Texans fell to 0-4, and 64 points cleared the 48.5 total by 15.5. CeeDee Lamb caught a career-high 17 of 21 targets for 189 yards and the 12-yard winning touchdown with 40 seconds left. Javonte Williams scored three short touchdowns for 31.3 PPR points. Nico Collins answered with 118 yards and two scores and C.J. Stroud threw for 347 yards. The disappointments were in the Houston backfield and at tight end: David Montgomery scored 4.3 against a 15.0 projection and Dalton Schultz caught two passes for 9 yards.

    Fun stat, Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans

    CeeDee Lamb caught 17 passes, one fewer than the Cowboys record Jason Witten set in 2012, and five of them came on the winning drive.

    CeeDee Lamb: 17 catches on 21 targets, 189 receiving yards, 1 TD; 1 carry, -6 rushing yards, 41.3 PPR points.

    Top fantasy lines, Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans, against the projection

    1. CeeDee LambWR, DAL

      17 catches on 21 targets, 189 receiving yards, 1 TD; 1 carry, -6 rushing yards

      41.3 PPR

      Projected 17.4
      +23.9 against the projection
    2. Javonte WilliamsRB, DAL

      19 carries, 62 rushing yards, 3 TD; 5 catches on 5 targets, 21 receiving yards

      31.3 PPR

      Projected 15.0
      +16.3 against the projection
    3. Nico CollinsWR, HOU

      7 catches on 8 targets, 118 receiving yards, 2 TD

      30.8 PPR

      Projected 18.6
      +12.2 against the projection
    4. C.J. StroudQB, HOU

      21 of 31, 347 passing yards, 2 TD; 2 carries, 12 rushing yards

      23.1 PPR

      Projected 18.5
      +4.6 against the projection
    5. Dak PrescottQB, DAL

      32 of 45, 335 passing yards, 1 TD; 2 carries, 7 rushing yards

      18.1 PPR

      Projected 18.3
      -0.2 against the projection
    6. Jaylin NoelWR, HOU

      3 catches on 3 targets, 85 receiving yards; 1 carry, 4 rushing yards

      11.9 PPR

      Projected 2.2
      +9.7 against the projection

    Value risers

    Value fallers

    Back to every game

  8. Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants: Jameis Winston throws three touchdowns and the Giants move to 3-1

    Kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT

    Final: Cardinals24atGiants36

    Closing spread
    Cardinals -2.5Opened Giants -7
    Against the spread
    Giants covered +2.5
    Total
    43.5Over, 60 scored; opened 45.5
    Moneyline
    Cardinals -130,Giants +110
    Expected score
    Cardinals 23,Giants 20.5Implied by the closing line
    Actual score
    Cardinals 24,Giants 36The underdog won outright

    The Giants opened as 7-point favourites, closed as 2.5-point underdogs, and won 36 to 24 after falling behind 14 to 3. Jameis Winston threw three touchdowns and two interceptions for 20.0 PPR points, one each to Malachi Fields, Malik Nabers and Theo Johnson, and the game ended on a pick-six. Nabers led all receivers in the game with 112 yards. For Arizona, Jacoby Brissett threw three interceptions, Michael Wilson saw 13 targets for 95 yards, and rookie Jeremiyah Love ran 14 times for 63 yards and scored 6.5 points against a 15.9 projection. The game went 16.5 points over its total.

    Fun stat, Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants

    Trey McBride was targeted 12 times and gained 31 yards, 10.1 PPR points against a 17.5 projection, and his Dynasty PPR SF value fell 700.

    Trey McBride: 7 catches on 12 targets, 31 receiving yards, 10.1 PPR points.

    Top fantasy lines, Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants, against the projection

    1. Malik NabersWR, NYG

      6 catches on 7 targets, 112 receiving yards, 1 TD

      23.2 PPR

      Projected 13.9
      +9.3 against the projection
    2. Jameis WinstonQB, NYG

      18 of 29, 250 passing yards, 3 TD, 2 INT

      20.0 PPR

      Projected 15.4
      +4.6 against the projection
    3. Michael WilsonWR, ARI

      7 catches on 13 targets, 95 receiving yards

      16.5 PPR

      Projected 14.6
      +1.9 against the projection
    4. Isaiah LikelyTE, NYG

      7 catches on 12 targets, 66 receiving yards

      13.6 PPR

      Projected 11.4
      +2.2 against the projection
    5. Jacoby BrissettQB, ARI

      21 of 35, 166 passing yards, 2 TD, 3 INT; 4 carries, 18 rushing yards

      13.4 PPR

      Projected 15.8
      -2.4 against the projection
    6. Tyler AllgeierRB, ARI

      8 carries, 42 rushing yards, 1 TD; 2 catches on 2 targets, 7 receiving yards

      12.9 PPR

      Projected 7.9
      +5.0 against the projection

    Value risers

    Value fallers

    Back to every game

  9. Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: Kyren Williams scores twice in the last four minutes as the Rams come back

    Kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT

    Final: Rams24atEagles20

    Closing spread
    Rams -4.5Opened Rams -1.5
    Against the spread
    Eagles covered +4.5
    Total
    42.5Over, 44 scored; opened 47.5
    Moneyline
    Rams -198,Eagles +164
    Expected score
    Rams 23.5,Eagles 19Implied by the closing line
    Actual score
    Rams 24,Eagles 20

    Philadelphia led by 10, covered the 4.5-point line, and lost 24 to 20 when Kyren Williams scored twice in the final four minutes, the second from 7 yards with 1:10 left. Williams led all running backs with 36.7 PPR points on 16 carries for 80 yards and 10 catches for 67. Puka Nacua played a full game after his groin injury and scored 27.7. The Eagles lost Saquon Barkley to a hamstring injury in the first quarter and Tank Bigsby to a core muscle injury, and Jalen Hurts threw for 93 yards, two touchdowns and 13.5 PPR points.

    Fun stat, Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

    Kyren Williams caught 10 of 13 targets on top of his two rushing touchdowns, and his 36.7 PPR points were 23.0 more than his projection.

    Kyren Williams: 16 carries, 80 rushing yards, 2 TD; 10 catches on 13 targets, 67 receiving yards, 36.7 PPR points.

    Top fantasy lines, Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles, against the projection

    1. Kyren WilliamsRB, LAR

      16 carries, 80 rushing yards, 2 TD; 10 catches on 13 targets, 67 receiving yards

      36.7 PPR

      Projected 13.7
      +23.0 against the projection
    2. Puka NacuaWR, LAR

      9 catches on 12 targets, 125 receiving yards; 1 carry, 2 rushing yards, 1 TD

      27.7 PPR

      Projected 19.3
      +8.4 against the projection
    3. Darius CooperWR, PHI

      3 catches on 7 targets, 33 receiving yards, 2 TD

      18.3 PPR

      Projected 5.7
      +12.6 against the projection
    4. Jalen HurtsQB, PHI

      12 of 27, 93 passing yards, 2 TD; 5 carries, 18 rushing yards

      13.5 PPR

      Projected 16.6
      -3.1 against the projection
    5. Matthew StaffordQB, LAR

      32 of 51, 317 passing yards, 2 INT; 3 carries, 10 rushing yards

      11.7 PPR

      Projected 16.5
      -4.8 against the projection
    6. Makai LemonWR, PHI

      3 catches on 6 targets, 27 receiving yards

      5.7 PPR

      Projected 10.1
      -4.4 against the projection

    Value risers

    Value fallers

    • Jalen HurtsDynasty PPR SF -990, Redraft 1QB PPR -1,113
    • Puka NacuaDynasty PPR SF -505, Redraft 1QB PPR -122

    Back to every game

  10. Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Green Bay survives Jalon Daniels' first start

    Kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT

    Final: Packers17atBuccaneers14

    Closing spread
    Packers -2.5Opened Packers -1.5
    Against the spread
    Packers covered -2.5
    Total
    38.5Under, 31 scored; opened 47.5
    Moneyline
    Packers -148,Buccaneers +124
    Expected score
    Packers 20.5,Buccaneers 18Implied by the closing line
    Actual score
    Packers 17,Buccaneers 14

    Green Bay won 17 to 14 and covered the 2.5-point line in a game that stayed 7.5 points under a 38.5 total that had fallen nine points from the open. With Baker Mayfield out, undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels threw two first-half interceptions that led to 10 Green Bay points, then went 11 of 14 after halftime with his first touchdown pass, for 13.4 PPR points. Jordan Love threw two touchdowns, one to Tucker Kraft, who led the game with 16.5. Bucky Irving carried 16 times for 61 yards and 6.1 points against a 14.5 projection, and Emeka Egbuka caught two passes for 13 yards.

    Fun stat, Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    Jalon Daniels ran for 55 yards on eight carries, a Buccaneers record for a rookie quarterback, beating a mark of 54 that had stood since 1976.

    Jalon Daniels: 19 of 27, 148 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT; 8 carries, 55 rushing yards, 13.4 PPR points.

    Top fantasy lines, Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, against the projection

    1. Tucker KraftTE, GB

      6 catches on 7 targets, 42 receiving yards, 1 TD; 1 carry, 3 rushing yards

      16.5 PPR

      Projected 10.5
      +6.0 against the projection
    2. Jordan LoveQB, GB

      22 of 30, 197 passing yards, 2 TD, 1 INT; 4 carries, -8 rushing yards

      14.1 PPR

      Projected 17.1
      -3.0 against the projection
    3. Jalon DanielsQB, TB

      19 of 27, 148 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT; 8 carries, 55 rushing yards

      13.4 PPR

      Projected 13.2
      +0.2 against the projection
    4. Matthew GoldenWR, GB

      3 catches on 7 targets, 21 receiving yards, 1 TD; 1 carry, 6 rushing yards

      11.7 PPR

      Projected 12.1
      -0.4 against the projection
    5. Kenny GainwellRB, TB

      3 carries, 5 rushing yards; 2 catches on 2 targets, 22 receiving yards, 1 TD

      10.7 PPR

      Projected 7.7
      +3.0 against the projection
    6. Chris GodwinWR, TB

      6 catches on 7 targets, 31 receiving yards

      9.1 PPR

      Projected 9.2
      -0.1 against the projection

    Value risers

    Nobody in this game gained value over the week.

    Value fallers

    Back to every game

  11. Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings: T.J. Hockenson catches all 13 targets in a game with no Minnesota touchdown

    Kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 4:05 PM EDT

    Final: Dolphins10atVikings15

    Closing spread
    Vikings -10Opened Vikings -7.5
    Against the spread
    Dolphins covered +10
    Total
    38.5Under, 25 scored; opened 43.5
    Moneyline
    Dolphins +400,Vikings -535
    Expected score
    Dolphins 14.3,Vikings 24.3Implied by the closing line
    Actual score
    Dolphins 10,Vikings 15

    Minnesota won 15 to 10 on five Will Reichard field goals and moved to 4-0 without an offensive touchdown, and Miami covered a 10-point line in a game that finished 13.5 under its total. Justin Jefferson sat with his ankle, and the targets went to T.J. Hockenson, who led all tight ends with 24.9 PPR points. Aaron Jones carried 20 times for 94 yards. Kyler Murray threw for 247 yards and no touchdowns for 11.5 points against a 17.9 projection. For Miami, Ollie Gordon ran nine times for 100 yards and the only touchdown, and Malik Willis threw for 85 yards.

    Fun stat, Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings

    T.J. Hockenson caught 13 passes on 13 targets for 119 yards, tying his career high for catches, and scored 24.9 PPR points without a touchdown.

    T.J. Hockenson: 13 catches on 13 targets, 119 receiving yards, 24.9 PPR points.

    Top fantasy lines, Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings, against the projection

    1. T.J. HockensonTE, MIN

      13 catches on 13 targets, 119 receiving yards

      24.9 PPR

      Projected 9.8
      +15.1 against the projection
    2. Ollie GordonRB, MIA

      9 carries, 100 rushing yards, 1 TD; 2 catches on 2 targets, 0 receiving yards

      18.0 PPR

      Projected 8.4
      +9.6 against the projection
    3. Aaron JonesRB, MIN

      20 carries, 94 rushing yards; 4 catches on 8 targets, 34 receiving yards

      16.8 PPR

      Projected 15.1
      +1.7 against the projection
    4. Malik WashingtonWR, MIA

      5 catches on 5 targets, 67 receiving yards; 2 carries, 3 rushing yards

      12.0 PPR

      Projected 8.9
      +3.1 against the projection
    5. Kyler MurrayQB, MIN

      27 of 37, 247 passing yards; 6 carries, 16 rushing yards

      11.5 PPR

      Projected 17.9
      -6.4 against the projection
    6. Malik WillisQB, MIA

      9 of 17, 85 passing yards; 2 carries, 11 rushing yards; 1 lost fumble

      2.5 PPR

      Projected 13.0
      -10.5 against the projection

    Value risers

    Nobody in this game gained value over the week.

    Value fallers

    Back to every game

  12. Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders: Kenneth Walker carries Kansas City to 4-0 and Tyquan Thornton is lost

    Kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 4:25 PM EDT

    Final: Chiefs30atRaiders27

    Closing spread
    Chiefs -3.5Opened Chiefs -5.5
    Against the spread
    Raiders covered +3.5
    Total
    47.5Over, 57 scored; opened 43.5
    Moneyline
    Chiefs -205,Raiders +170
    Expected score
    Chiefs 25.5,Raiders 22Implied by the closing line
    Actual score
    Chiefs 30,Raiders 27

    Kansas City won 30 to 27 in Las Vegas, the Raiders covered the 3.5-point line, and the game went over its 47.5 total. Kenneth Walker ran 22 times for 177 yards and two touchdowns, 152 of the yards after halftime, including a 76-yard run and the 2-yard winner with 3:21 left. Patrick Mahomes threw two touchdowns for 17.0 points. Rashee Rice left in the first quarter with a hamstring. For Las Vegas, Kirk Cousins threw for 365 yards and Brock Bowers scored 20.6 with a touchdown, while Travis Kelce managed 3.5 for the Chiefs.

    Fun stat, Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

    Tyquan Thornton was projected for 0.0 points, scored 28.1 with two touchdowns and a 55-yard catch that set up the winner, and then dislocated his ankle; he is expected to miss 12 to 16 weeks.

    Tyquan Thornton: 5 catches on 8 targets, 111 receiving yards, 2 TD, 28.1 PPR points.

    Top fantasy lines, Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders, against the projection

    1. Kenneth WalkerRB, KC

      22 carries, 177 rushing yards, 2 TD; 1 catch on 1 target, 2 receiving yards

      30.9 PPR

      Projected 19.9
      +11.0 against the projection
    2. Tyquan ThorntonWR, KC

      5 catches on 8 targets, 111 receiving yards, 2 TD

      28.1 PPR

      Projected 0.0
    3. Kirk CousinsQB, LV

      31 of 52, 365 passing yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

      23.6 PPR

      Projected 14.7
      +8.9 against the projection
    4. Brock BowersTE, LV

      6 catches on 11 targets, 86 receiving yards, 1 TD

      20.6 PPR

      Projected 15.2
      +5.4 against the projection
    5. Ashton JeantyRB, LV

      15 carries, 58 rushing yards; 6 catches on 8 targets, 68 receiving yards

      18.6 PPR

      Projected 15.4
      +3.2 against the projection
    6. Patrick MahomesQB, KC

      15 of 30, 225 passing yards, 2 TD; 2 carries, 0 rushing yards

      17.0 PPR

      Projected 21.3
      -4.3 against the projection

    Value risers

    Value fallers

    Back to every game

  13. Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks: Emanuel Wilson scores twice as the Chargers fall to 0-4

    Kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 4:25 PM EDT

    Final: Chargers23atSeahawks30

    Closing spread
    Seahawks -7Opened Seahawks -3
    Against the spread
    Push
    Total
    43.5Over, 53 scored; opened 45.5
    Moneyline
    Chargers +275,Seahawks -345
    Expected score
    Chargers 18.3,Seahawks 25.3Implied by the closing line
    Actual score
    Chargers 23,Seahawks 30

    Seattle led 27 to 6 in the third quarter, committed a franchise-record 150 penalty yards, and won 30 to 23, landing exactly on the 7-point line for a push. With Jadarian Price on injured reserve, Emanuel Wilson ran 21 times for 81 yards, caught three for 39 and scored once each way for 27.0 PPR points. Sam Darnold threw two touchdowns on 22 attempts. For the Chargers, Justin Herbert threw two interceptions and lost a fumble, and Keaton Mitchell out-touched Omarion Hampton, who scored once on nine carries; Hampton's Dynasty PPR SF value fell 1,182, the largest drop of anyone who played.

    Fun stat, Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks

    Jaxon Smith-Njigba came in with 100 yards and a touchdown in every game this season and a shot at a Randy Moss record, and finished with 76 yards and 12.6 points against a 22.6 projection.

    Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 5 catches on 6 targets, 76 receiving yards, 12.6 PPR points.

    Top fantasy lines, Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks, against the projection

    1. Emanuel WilsonRB, SEA

      21 carries, 81 rushing yards, 1 TD; 3 catches on 4 targets, 39 receiving yards, 1 TD

      27.0 PPR

      Projected 9.9
      +17.1 against the projection
    2. Sam DarnoldQB, SEA

      13 of 22, 168 passing yards, 2 TD, 1 INT; 3 carries, 6 rushing yards

      14.3 PPR

      Projected 17.1
      -2.8 against the projection
    3. Omarion HamptonRB, LAC

      9 carries, 45 rushing yards, 1 TD; 2 catches on 2 targets, 8 receiving yards

      13.3 PPR

      Projected 10.7
      +2.6 against the projection
    4. Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR, SEA

      5 catches on 6 targets, 76 receiving yards

      12.6 PPR

      Projected 22.6
      -10.0 against the projection
    5. Justin HerbertQB, LAC

      19 of 31, 189 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT; 6 carries, 40 rushing yards; 0 catches on 1 target, 0 receiving yards; 1 lost fumble

      11.6 PPR

      Projected 14.3
      -2.7 against the projection
    6. Kimani VidalRB, LAC

      5 carries, 25 rushing yards; 2 catches on 3 targets, 11 receiving yards, 1 TD

      11.6 PPR

      Projected 1.7
      +9.9 against the projection

    Value risers

    Value fallers

    Back to every game

  14. Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco scores on three straight drives and stays unbeaten

    Kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 4:25 PM EDT

    Final: Broncos14at49ers24

    Closing spread
    49ers -3Opened 49ers -2.5
    Against the spread
    49ers covered -3
    Total
    48.5Under, 38 scored; opened 46.5
    Moneyline
    Broncos +140,49ers -166
    Expected score
    Broncos 22.8,49ers 25.8Implied by the closing line
    Actual score
    Broncos 14,49ers 24

    San Francisco covered the 3-point line, 24 to 14, with touchdowns on three straight second-half possessions, the first set up by a fumbled Denver punt return, and the game finished 10.5 points under its total. Brock Purdy threw two touchdowns and ran 10 times for 19.6 PPR points, and Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle all scored. Denver lost Patrick Surtain and Riley Moss at cornerback and Pat Bryant to an ankle. Bo Nix threw for 214 yards and 13.6 points against an 18.3 projection, and Courtland Sutton caught one of six targets.

    Fun stat, Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers

    RJ Harvey caught all 10 of his targets for 68 yards and scored 19.3 PPR points, more than half of them through the air, on only seven carries.

    RJ Harvey: 7 carries, 25 rushing yards; 10 catches on 10 targets, 68 receiving yards, 19.3 PPR points.

    Top fantasy lines, Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers, against the projection

    1. Brock PurdyQB, SF

      19 of 30, 218 passing yards, 2 TD; 10 carries, 29 rushing yards

      19.6 PPR

      Projected 20.4
      -0.8 against the projection
    2. RJ HarveyRB, DEN

      7 carries, 25 rushing yards; 10 catches on 10 targets, 68 receiving yards

      19.3 PPR

      Projected 11.1
      +8.2 against the projection
    3. Deebo SamuelWR, SF

      5 catches on 6 targets, 26 receiving yards, 1 TD; 3 carries, 44 rushing yards

      18.0 PPR

      Projected 9.3
      +8.7 against the projection
    4. George KittleTE, SF

      4 catches on 6 targets, 70 receiving yards, 1 TD

      17.0 PPR

      Projected 12.0
      +5.0 against the projection
    5. Jaylen WaddleWR, DEN

      5 catches on 6 targets, 35 receiving yards, 1 TD

      14.5 PPR

      Projected 12.6
      +1.9 against the projection
    6. Bo NixQB, DEN

      25 of 42, 214 passing yards, 1 TD; 2 carries, 10 rushing yards

      13.6 PPR

      Projected 18.3
      -4.7 against the projection

    Value risers

    Value fallers

    Back to every game

  15. Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers: Tetairoa McMillan has the best line of the week in a Sunday night upset

    Kickoff Oct 4, 2026, 8:20 PM EDT

    Final: Lions26atPanthers32

    Closing spread
    Lions -3.5Opened Lions -3
    Against the spread
    Panthers covered +3.5
    Total
    52.5Over, 58 scored; opened 45.5
    Moneyline
    Lions -192,Panthers +160
    Expected score
    Lions 28,Panthers 24.5Implied by the closing line
    Actual score
    Lions 26,Panthers 32The underdog won outright

    Carolina won 32 to 26 as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday night, and 58 points went over a total that had climbed from 45.5 to 52.5. Tetairoa McMillan scored 45.2 PPR points, the best line of the week. Bryce Young threw for 329 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, and Chuba Hubbard ran 20 times for 122 yards and two scores. Jared Goff threw 52 times for 412 yards, which kept Sam LaPorta (22.4 on 13 targets) and Jameson Williams (102 yards) busy, but Jahmyr Gibbs managed 46 rushing yards and 17.7 points against a 25.7 projection.

    Fun stat, Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers

    Tetairoa McMillan caught 14 of 16 targets for 192 yards and two touchdowns and beat his projection by 29.3 points, the biggest beat of the week.

    Tetairoa McMillan: 14 catches on 16 targets, 192 receiving yards, 2 TD, 45.2 PPR points.

    Top fantasy lines, Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers, against the projection

    1. Tetairoa McMillanWR, CAR

      14 catches on 16 targets, 192 receiving yards, 2 TD

      45.2 PPR

      Projected 15.9
      +29.3 against the projection
    2. Chuba HubbardRB, CAR

      20 carries, 122 rushing yards, 2 TD; 1 catch on 2 targets, 7 receiving yards

      25.9 PPR

      Projected 16.3
      +9.6 against the projection
    3. Sam LaPortaTE, DET

      8 catches on 13 targets, 84 receiving yards, 1 TD

      22.4 PPR

      Projected 11.7
      +10.7 against the projection
    4. Bryce YoungQB, CAR

      29 of 41, 329 passing yards, 2 TD; 3 carries, 3 rushing yards

      21.5 PPR

      Projected 19.4
      +2.1 against the projection
    5. Jared GoffQB, DET

      32 of 52, 412 passing yards, 1 TD

      20.5 PPR

      Projected 18.6
      +1.9 against the projection
    6. Jahmyr GibbsRB, DET

      15 carries, 46 rushing yards, 1 TD; 4 catches on 7 targets, 31 receiving yards

      17.7 PPR

      Projected 25.7
      -8.0 against the projection

    Value risers

    Value fallers

    Back to every game

  16. Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: Two Robinsons, five rushing touchdowns, and a Monday night rout

    Kickoff Oct 5, 2026, 8:15 PM EDT

    Final: Falcons45atSaints24

    Closing spread
    Saints -1.5Opened Saints -2.5
    Against the spread
    Falcons covered +1.5
    Total
    48.5Over, 69 scored; opened 45.5
    Moneyline
    Falcons -105,Saints -115
    Expected score
    Falcons 23.5,Saints 25Implied by the closing line
    Actual score
    Falcons 45,Saints 24

    Atlanta closed as a 1.5-point underdog and won 45 to 24 in New Orleans, scoring on six straight possessions; the 69 points were the most of the week, 21.5 over the total. Bijan Robinson ran 19 times for 145 yards and two touchdowns, starting with a 59-yard run on the third play. Michael Penix needed only 20 throws for 223 yards and a touchdown to Jahan Dotson. For the Saints, Tyler Shough threw 48 times for 286 yards and heard boos at home, Chris Olave caught eight for 116, and Alvin Kamara scored twice for 22.8 points on seven carries.

    Fun stat, Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

    Brian Robinson was projected for 4.8 points and scored 25.7, three rushing touchdowns on 14 carries as the second back behind Bijan Robinson.

    Brian Robinson: 14 carries, 62 rushing yards, 3 TD; 1 catch on 1 target, 5 receiving yards, 25.7 PPR points.

    Top fantasy lines, Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, against the projection

    1. Bijan RobinsonRB, ATL

      19 carries, 145 rushing yards, 2 TD; 1 catch on 2 targets, 2 receiving yards

      27.7 PPR

      Projected 23.2
      +4.5 against the projection
    2. Brian RobinsonRB, ATL

      14 carries, 62 rushing yards, 3 TD; 1 catch on 1 target, 5 receiving yards

      25.7 PPR

      Projected 4.8
      +20.9 against the projection
    3. Alvin KamaraRB, NO

      7 carries, 23 rushing yards, 2 TD; 5 catches on 7 targets, 35 receiving yards

      22.8 PPR

      Projected 9.8
      +13.0 against the projection
    4. Chris OlaveWR, NO

      8 catches on 12 targets, 116 receiving yards

      19.6 PPR

      Projected 19.0
      +0.6 against the projection
    5. Devaughn VeleWR, NO

      6 catches on 9 targets, 54 receiving yards, 1 TD

      17.4 PPR

      Projected 10.9
      +6.5 against the projection
    6. Drake LondonWR, ATL

      5 catches on 6 targets, 96 receiving yards

      14.6 PPR

      Projected 17.0
      -2.4 against the projection

    Value risers

    Value fallers

    Back to every game

PPR points from the week's box scores. Projected is the Sleeper projection published for week 4, before any FF Beacon adjustment. Value moves are Dynasty PPR SF on FF Beacon and Redraft 1QB PPR on FF Beacon, from the last value on or before 2026-09-29 to the last on or before 2026-10-06.

Computed . Finals are derived from the two team-defense stat lines of each game. Lines are the closing numbers DraftKings posted, as ESPN reports them; the implied team totals are the closing total split by the closing spread.

Week 4, part 3 of 6

How the projections did: a coin flip, and high at quarterback

The Sleeper projection was a coin flip again in week 4: 136 of 273 graded players beat it, 50 percent, and the average miss was 4.7 PPR points. It ran high at quarterback, where only 10 of 31 graded players beat it and the average quarterback finished 1.1 points short, and slightly low at receiver and tight end, where 54 percent beat it.

The season lists are the part to use. Kenneth Walker has beaten his projection in all four games, by 9.8 points on average, and Zay Flowers and Mike Gesicki are three for three. On the other side, Kyler Murray has fallen short in all three graded games by 9.9 on average and Saquon Barkley in all three by 9.3. A number that keeps missing in the same direction is one to adjust before you set a lineup on it.

How the Sleeper projection did in week 4

A coin flip overall at 50 percent, and high at quarterback, where only 10 of 31 graded players beat it.

  • QB32% beat it, 10 of 31; average miss 4.4 points; lean -1.1
  • RB48% beat it, 38 of 79; average miss 5 points; lean +1.1
  • WR54% beat it, 58 of 107; average miss 5.1 points; lean +1.4
  • TE54% beat it, 30 of 56; average miss 3.7 points; lean +0.8
  • All50% beat it, 136 of 273; average miss 4.7 points; lean +0.9, all four positions

The line in each bar is 50 percent. Lean is actual minus projected on average: above zero means the projection ran low.

Season: beat it most reliably

  1. Brock BowersTE LV: beat it in 2 of 2 games, +10 a game against 14.1 projected
  2. Kenneth WalkerRB KC: beat it in 4 of 4 games, +9.8 a game against 17.7 projected
  3. Nico CollinsWR HOU: beat it in 2 of 2 games, +8.5 a game against 17.5 projected
  4. Mike GesickiTE CIN: beat it in 3 of 3 games, +7.8 a game against 7.1 projected
  5. Zay FlowersWR BAL: beat it in 3 of 3 games, +7.1 a game against 15.3 projected

Season: furthest below it

  1. Kyler MurrayQB MIN: beat it in 0 of 3 games, -9.9 a game against 17.8 projected
  2. Saquon BarkleyRB PHI: beat it in 0 of 3 games, -9.3 a game against 16.3 projected
  3. Jayden ReedWR GB: beat it in 0 of 2 games, -8.6 a game against 11.8 projected
  4. De'Von AchaneRB MIA: beat it in 0 of 3 games, -8.4 a game against 16.6 projected
  5. Jauan JenningsWR MIN: beat it in 0 of 2 games, -7.4 a game against 8.9 projected

Computed . Graded against the Sleeper projection published for each week, in PPR, before any FF Beacon adjustment. A graded game is one where a projection above zero was published and the player took the field. Mean error is actual minus projected: above zero means the projection ran low. Season lists need 2 graded games; the reliable list counts players projected for 6 or more a game and the laggard list 8 or more.

Week 4, part 4 of 6

Injuries and availability: Lamar, Saquon, Chase and Thornton

The timeline below places every reported absence by its expected return; Jalon Daniels appears on it only because the Mayfield report names him, and he is healthy and starting. One line per player who matters for fantasy, dynasty first and redraft second:

Week 4 in six numbers

A heavy week: 128 reports, 77 of them injuries, and 41 players ruled out or placed on reserve.

  • Reports this period: 128

  • Injuries reported: 77

  • Players ruled out or placed on IR: 41

  • Transactions: 28

  • Biggest value riser, Dynasty PPR SF: Tyler Shough, +631

  • Top PPR scorer, week 4: Tetairoa McMillan, 45.2

Computed . Counts are the period's Relays. The value figure is the change over the last seven days on FF Beacon, Dynasty PPR SF. The top scorer is the week's best PPR line in the box scores.

Who is expected back when

Juszczyk is first back around week 6, Mayfield between weeks 7 and 10, and Thornton not before week 16.

7 players have an expected return between week 6 (Kyle Juszczyk) and week 18 (Tyquan Thornton). 34 reports gave no timeline.

View the numbers behind this chart
Who is expected back when: every player, the status, the timeline as reported and the expected return week
PlayerTeamStatusTimeline as reportedExpected return
Kyle JuszczykSFouta couple of weeksWeek 6
Jalen McMillanTBirminimum of four gamesWeek 8
Jaycee HornCARirat least the next four gamesWeek 8
Baker MayfieldTBoutthree to six weeksWeek 10
Jalon DanielsTBoutthree to six weeksWeek 10
Tank BigsbyPHIirsix weeks or shorterWeek 10
Tyquan ThorntonKCout12 to 16 weeksWeek 18
Braiden McGregorNYJoutNo timeline givenn/a
Braxton BerriosNYGirNo timeline givenn/a
Braxton JonesCHIirNo timeline givenn/a
Christian GonzalezNEoutSundayn/a
Derwin JamesLACoutNo timeline givenn/a
DeVonta SmithPHIoutNo timeline givenn/a
DJ MooreBUFdoubtfulNo timeline givenn/a
Edgerrin CooperGBoutNo timeline givenn/a
Ja'Marr ChaseCINoutNo timeline givenn/a
Jadarian PriceSEAirNo timeline givenn/a
Jalen ThompsonDALirNo timeline givenn/a
Jayden DanielsWASoutNo timeline givenn/a
Jayden ReedGBoutNo timeline givenn/a
Jordyn TysonNOoutweeks awayn/a
Jovaughn GwynBALirNo timeline givenn/a
Justin JeffersonMINoutNo timeline givenn/a
Keenan AllenINDoutSundayn/a
Marcus MariotaWASoutNo timeline givenn/a
Mykel WilliamsSFpupNo timeline givenn/a
Paris JohnsonARIoutNo timeline givenn/a
Pat BryantDENouta few weeksn/a
Pat SurtainDENoutNo timeline givenn/a
Rashawn SlaterLACoutNo timeline givenn/a
Rashee RiceKCdoubtfulNo timeline givenn/a
Riley MossDENoutNo timeline givenn/a
Sam CosmiWASoutSundayn/a
Saquon BarkleyPHIoutNo timeline givenn/a
Terrance FergusonLARirNo timeline givenn/a
Terry McLaurinWASoutNo timeline givenn/a
Travis EtienneNOirNo timeline givenn/a
Trey HendricksonBALoutNo timeline givenn/a
Warren BrinsonGBirNo timeline givenn/a
Xavier LegetteCARirNo timeline givenn/a
Za'Darius SmithATLoutNo timeline givenn/a

No timeline given, 34 players

Computed . Players the period's Relays report as out, on injured reserve, on PUP or doubtful, by their newest report. The expected return is the later end of the reported timeline, counted from week 4; a player whose report gave no timeline is listed without one, and none is guessed.

Return planner: who is back for the next month

Inside weeks 5 to 8 the timeline returns Juszczyk and Jalen McMillan; Mayfield and Bigsby land at the end of that window or after it.

3 players are expected back between week 5 and week 8.

Expected after week 8: Baker Mayfield (week 10), Jalon Daniels (week 10), Tank Bigsby (week 10), Tyquan Thornton (week 18).

34 players had no timeline and are listed under the timeline above, by status.

Week 4, part 5 of 6

Moves and role changes: Bagent, Mixon, Tyreek Hill and two backfields

Week 4 lines for the players in this section and the injury list

Wilson's 27.0 and Thornton's 28.1 were the role stories; Chase and Barkley left early with 5.7 and 2.0.

  1. Tyquan ThorntonWR, KC vs LV

    5 catches on 8 targets, 111 receiving yards, 2 TD; 63% of snaps

    28.1 PPR

    Half 25.6Standard 23.1
  2. Emanuel WilsonRB, SEA vs LAC

    21 carries, 81 rushing yards, 1 TD; 3 catches on 4 targets, 39 receiving yards, 1 TD; 60% of snaps

    27.0 PPR

    Half 25.5Standard 24.0
  3. Tee HigginsWR, CIN vs JAX

    11 catches on 16 targets, 157 receiving yards; 79% of snaps

    26.7 PPR

    Half 21.2Standard 15.7
  4. Sam LaPortaTE, DET vs CAR

    8 catches on 13 targets, 84 receiving yards, 1 TD; 79% of snaps

    22.4 PPR

    Half 18.4Standard 14.4
  5. Lamar JacksonQB, BAL vs TEN

    15 of 20, 222 passing yards, 2 TD; 2 carries, 20 rushing yards; 52% of snaps

    18.9 PPR

    Half 18.9Standard 18.9
  6. Jalon DanielsQB, TB vs GB

    19 of 27, 148 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT; 8 carries, 55 rushing yards; 98% of snaps

    13.4 PPR

    Half 13.4Standard 13.4
  7. Athan KaliakmanisQB, WAS vs IND

    15 of 33, 186 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 3 carries, 16 rushing yards; 84% of snaps

    12.0 PPR

    Half 12.0Standard 12.0
  8. Tyson BagentQB, CHI vs NYJ

    25 of 34, 268 passing yards, 1 INT; 4 carries, 1 rushing yards; 100% of snaps

    9.8 PPR

    Half 9.8Standard 9.8
  9. Mitch TinsleyWR, CIN vs JAX

    3 catches on 7 targets, 49 receiving yards; 53% of snaps

    7.9 PPR

    Half 6.4Standard 4.9
  10. Cody WhiteWR, LV vs KC

    2 catches on 4 targets, 36 receiving yards; 62% of snaps

    7.6 PPR

    Half 6.6Standard 5.6
  11. Ja'Marr ChaseWR, CIN vs JAX

    3 catches on 3 targets, 27 receiving yards; 20% of snaps

    5.7 PPR

    Half 4.2Standard 2.7
  12. Saquon BarkleyRB, PHI vs LAR

    2 carries, 8 rushing yards; 1 catch on 1 target, 2 receiving yards; 7% of snaps

    2.0 PPR

    Half 1.5Standard 1.0

Computed . Week 4 box scores for the players the period's Relays name. A player missing from the table has no box score for the week. Defensive players carry defensive columns only, scored in Sleeper's default IDP scoring; their offensive columns are empty on purpose.

Week 4, part 6 of 6

What to do this week: claims, holds and one buy

Every call is tied to a report above and to a number on the site; the cards below link each one to the tool that runs it.

  • Claim Emanuel Wilson everywhere: 21 carries and 27.0 PPR points with Price on reserve, and a redraft value up 706. Size the bid in the FAAB calculator.
  • Claim Ollie Gordon: 100 rushing yards on nine carries and a redraft value up 699, with a 6 to 11 percent bid at the default league shape.
  • Claim Keaton Mitchell as a flex depth add: he out-touched Hampton, and his redraft value rose 329.
  • Put a 1 to 3 percent bid on Tyreek Hill only where your bench can hold a player who has not signed.
  • Hold Lamar Jackson and check Friday's report before the Sunday night kickoff; run the backup call through Who Should I Start.
  • Hold Ja'Marr Chase, and buy him in redraft if a manager is selling the concussion at the price that fell 1,416; check the offer in the trade calculator.
  • Start Brock Bowers every week: he has beaten his projection in both graded games, and the model has him at 16.2 against New England.
  • Hold Saquon Barkley and Rashee Rice; neither injury is long, and Kansas City has a bye.

This week's calls, each with the tool that runs it

Three claims and a flyer, three holds and one start.

Computed . Risers over the last seven days on FF Beacon, Redraft 1QB PPR, ranked outside the top 108 (a 12-team, 9-starter league's weekly starters), excluding players on the injury timeline. The bid range is the FF Beacon FAAB calculator at its default league shape (12 teams, 9 starters, medium need, 100 budget) as a percent of remaining budget; it is not a league-specific figure and no waiver add-rate data is used. Dynasty columns are Dynasty PPR SF on FF Beacon.

Biggest Dynasty PPR SF value moves of the week

Tyler Shough rose 631 and Brock Bowers 444, while Anthony Richardson fell 2,231, the biggest move of the week in either direction.

The biggest rise is Tyler Shough at +631.

View the numbers behind this chart
Biggest Dynasty PPR SF value moves of the week: every player and the seven-day change
PlayerPosTeamValue7-day change
Tyler ShoughQBNO5,784+631
Brock BowersTELV8,133+444
Kirk CousinsQBLV1,464+347
Zay FlowersWRBAL5,792+334
Joe MixonRBSEA322+242
Nico CollinsWRHOU5,516+222
Justin FieldsQBKC552+211
Joe BurrowQBCIN8,110+198
Darius CooperWRPHI172+169
George KittleTESF2,614+166
Konata MumpfieldWRLAR344+163
C.J. StroudQBHOU3,996+159

Computed . Values from FF Beacon, Dynasty PPR SF. The move column is the change over the last seven days.

The same movers in dynasty and in redraft

Switch to Redraft 1QB PPR and Achane falls 2,792 and Kalif Raymond rises 2,003, while Richardson's 2,231 dynasty drop becomes an 85-point gain.

Show values for

Showing Dynasty PPR SF.

Value movers by format: Dynasty PPR SF
PlayerPosTeamValue7-day changeRank
Anthony RichardsonQBIND940-2,231207
Omarion HamptonRBLAC4,943-1,18239
Jalen HurtsQBPHI6,307-99024
Drake MayeQBNE6,223-91627
Justin HerbertQBLAC5,241-89036
Ladd McConkeyWRLAC3,714-87359
Emeka EgbukaWRTB4,070-85552
De'Von AchaneRBMIA4,795-76642
Colston LovelandTECHI3,794-76356
Case KeenumQBCHI166-735339
Saquon BarkleyRBPHI3,217-63969
Tyler ShoughQBNO5,784+63132
David MontgomeryRBHOU1,842-599113
Brock BowersTELV8,133+4448
DeVonta SmithWRPHI4,695-44245
J.J. McCarthyQBNYG1,267-357173
Kirk CousinsQBLV1,464+347136
Zay FlowersWRBAL5,792+33431
De'Zhaun StriblingWRSF1,778-247115
Joe MixonRBSEA322+242275
Nico CollinsWRHOU5,516+22233
Justin FieldsQBKC552+211244
Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN9,714-2084
Ollie GordonRBMIA1,155-204181
Joe BurrowQBCIN8,110+1989
Darius CooperWRPHI172+169336
George KittleTESF2,614+16689
Michael WilsonWRARI2,612+13590
Tyquan ThorntonWRKC424-131259
Parker WashingtonWRJAX4,694+11746
Tre' HarrisWRLAC1,354-117154
Emanuel WilsonRBSEA735+89223
Mack HollinsWRNE328-77273
Kalif RaymondWRCHI467+47252

Computed . Values from FF Beacon: Dynasty PPR SF on FF Beacon; Redraft 1QB PPR on FF Beacon. The move column is the change over the last seven days.

Week 4, questions people ask

Questions people ask

Is Lamar Jackson playing in week 5?

Unknown as of Monday. He hurt his left ankle on a sack at the end of the first half against Tennessee, left the stadium in a walking boot and had an MRI on October 5. Jesse Minter called him day to day and said he does not expect a long absence. The model projects him for 18.5 points at Atlanta; his Dynasty PPR SF value fell 481 to 8,803.

How long is Saquon Barkley out?

He is week to week with a hamstring injury from the first quarter of the 24 to 20 loss to the Rams, and Nick Sirianni said he would have more on Wednesday. Tank Bigsby, the next back, is headed to injured reserve for core muscle surgery. Barkley's Redraft 1QB PPR value fell 1,164 to 5,356.

Will Ja'Marr Chase play against the Dolphins?

He is in the concussion protocol after a second-quarter hit against Jacksonville and Zac Taylor called him day to day. Tee Higgins, who caught 11 passes for 157 yards with Chase out, is also day to day with an adductor injury. Chase is projected for 18.0 points against Miami if he clears.

Who replaces Tyquan Thornton in Kansas City?

Nobody on the roster yet. Thornton needs surgery on a dislocated ankle and is expected back in 12 to 16 weeks, Rashee Rice has a hamstring injury described as minor, and the Chiefs have stayed in contact with free agent Tyreek Hill, whose agent expects him to sign within days. Kansas City is on a bye in week 5.

Week 4, the reports

Relays covered

The 128 reports this edition drew on, newest first. Each one credits its original reporter.

Show the other 116 reports

Talk it through

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