Jalen Coker or Michael Wilson?
Start Jalen Coker. Coker projects 0.0 points clear of Michael Wilson in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore Wilson.
Jalen Coker
StartTools
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Working out who to start.
Before you lock in a kicker or a quarterback, check this week's game day weather.
Week 8
Real Week 8 comparisons with the verdict already worked out. Open any of them on the board for the full breakdown.
Start Jalen Coker. Coker projects 0.0 points clear of Michael Wilson in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore Wilson.
Jalen Coker
StartThe method
It starts with a weekly point projection from Sleeper, rescored under the format set in the site header rather than left in one generic scoring. That single adjustment is why a TE premium league or a superflex league can see a different lean than a standard league for the same two players.
Still not sure?
The confidence figure gives you a clear lean, but a close start/sit call can stay close. Bring it to our Discord and real fantasy managers will help you settle it for free. Want to know what's behind FF Beacon? Read about the project.
WR
CAR
16.4 projected points
Michael Wilson
SitWR
ARI
16.3 projected points
Start Bucky Irving. Irving projects 0.0 points clear of Jonathan Taylor in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore Taylor.
Bucky Irving
StartRB
TB
16.8 projected points
Jonathan Taylor
SitRB
IND
16.8 projected points
Start Carnell Tate. Tate projects 0.0 points clear of Matthew Golden in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore Golden.
Carnell Tate
StartWR
TEN
13.7 projected points
Matthew Golden
SitWR
GB
13.7 projected points
Start Christian Watson. Watson projects 0.0 points clear of Garrett Wilson in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore Wilson.
Christian Watson
StartWR
GB
16.3 projected points
Garrett Wilson
SitWR
NYJ
16.3 projected points
Start Dak Prescott. Prescott projects 0.0 points clear of Drake Maye in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore Maye.
Dak Prescott
StartQB
DAL
22.5 projected points
Drake Maye
SitQB
NE
22.4 projected points
Start Jayden Daniels. Daniels projects 0.0 points clear of Bryce Young in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore Young.
Jayden Daniels
StartQB
WAS
18.2 projected points
Bryce Young
SitQB
CAR
18.2 projected points
Start George Pickens. Pickens projects 0.0 points clear of Tetairoa McMillan in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore McMillan.
George Pickens
StartWR
DAL
14.9 projected points
Tetairoa McMillan
SitWR
CAR
14.9 projected points
Start Harold Fannin Jr.. Jr. projects 0.0 points clear of Brenton Strange in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore Strange.
Harold Fannin Jr.
StartTE
CLE
11.0 projected points
Brenton Strange
SitTE
JAX
10.9 projected points
Start CeeDee Lamb. Lamb projects 0.1 points clear of Puka Nacua in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore Nacua.
CeeDee Lamb
StartWR
DAL
22.5 projected points
Puka Nacua
SitWR
LAR
22.5 projected points
Start Chad Ryland. Ryland projects 0.0 points clear of Jake Bates in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore Bates.
Chad Ryland
StartK
ARI
8.4 projected points
Jake Bates
SitK
DET
8.4 projected points
Start Tucker Kraft. Kraft projects 0.0 points clear of Sam LaPorta in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore LaPorta.
Tucker Kraft
StartTE
GB
11.2 projected points
Sam LaPorta
SitTE
DET
11.1 projected points
Start Minnesota Vikings. Vikings projects 0.1 points clear of Cleveland Browns in Redraft 1QB PPR, 51 percent to outscore Browns.
Minnesota Vikings
StartDEF
MIN
6.5 projected points
Cleveland Browns
SitDEF
CLE
6.4 projected points
Next comes the matchup: how many fantasy points the opposing defense has allowed to that position, measured from our own player-by-player results rather than taken from the projection source, and adjusted for the strength of the offenses that defense actually faced. It blends the two most recent seasons of games actually played, weighting the more recent one heavier.
Then a reliability discount: how often the player has actually beaten the player's own projection in games graded so far this season, and how often the player has been available to play at all. A boom-or-bust player gets pulled back toward the field; a steady one keeps more of that projected number.
Finally, the confidence figure: the probability that the player you are told to start actually outscores the closest player left on the bench, built from the same win-probability math the League Pulse schedule board uses to grade a matchup.
Projections and injury designations refresh once a day; the timestamp above the board is the exact time the numbers you are looking at were last pulled.
Scoring formats
The format chip at the top of the board follows whatever you have set in the site header, and every player's projection is repriced under that scoring rather than shown once in a single format. PPR and half PPR change how much a high-target pass catcher is worth next to a workhorse runner; standard drops the reception bonus entirely and shifts the whole board toward touchdowns and yardage.
TE premium and superflex are treated as real formats here, not a checkbox bolted onto a PPR number, because both change who the better start actually is. For a deeper look at where a player ranks under your own scoring, see the full Redraft 1QB PPR rankings board or browse rankings for every format we support.
Your board is set to
Redraft 1QB PPR
Change it from the format control in the site header.
Volume decides most quarterback weeks before the matchup does. A quarterback who throws forty times and adds rushing work on top can outscore a tougher matchup through pure opportunity, which is why the projection starts from expected attempts and carries, not from a single highlight-worthy throw. After volume, the tool weighs the matchup: how many points the opposing defense has allowed to the position, adjusted for the offenses that defense actually faced. Game environment matters too. A quarterback expected to trail throws more; one expected to lead runs the clock out and throws less. Rushing floor is usually what separates two similar passers when their passing numbers project close together.
Start Dak Prescott. Prescott projects 0.0 points clear of Drake Maye in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore Maye.
Full breakdown: Prescott vs MayeTarget share moves a wide receiver's projection more than any other number, because a receiver who sees the ball ten times a game keeps a real floor even on a week the catches go for short gains. After volume, the tool looks at the matchup a receiver actually draws, the gap between a shadow cornerback and a zone look, folded into the defense's points allowed to the position rather than guessed at separately. Game script cuts the other way from running backs: a team expected to trail throws more, which lifts every pass catcher on the roster, including one who would otherwise look like the week's riskier option.
Target share does the most work at tight end, because touchdown-dependent, boom-or-bust production is what separates a usable weekly starter from a name a reader only half recognizes. The tool leans on route participation and red-zone role ahead of raw catch totals, since a tight end on the field for every pass play keeps a real floor even in a game that never turns into a shootout. Matchup still counts, particularly against a defense that struggles to cover the position out of its base personnel, but the gap between replacement level and the position's best players is unusually wide, so role tends to beat matchup more often here than it does at wide receiver.
A flex spot compares players across positions directly on projected points, which is exactly what this tool does: whichever player projects to score more, once matchup, role, and reliability are folded in, is the better start regardless of position. A running back's weekly floor usually comes from touches guaranteed regardless of how the game unfolds, while a receiver's ceiling usually comes from a matchup or a script that favors the pass, so the flex call is often a trade-off between the two rather than a clear edge for either position. When the projections sit close together, the confidence figure and the reliability numbers are the tiebreaker worth trusting over raw upside.
In order
Start with the projection: it already accounts for volume, role, and game script, so it beats a gut feeling about a name you recognize.
Weigh the matchup next, favorable or tough, but treat it as a nudge on a close projection rather than a reason to overturn a clear one.
If your team is favored, lean toward the safer floor between two similar options; if you are the underdog, lean toward the higher ceiling, since a spot start is worth more when you are chasing points than when you are protecting a lead.
Check injury status and weather last, after the numbers, since a limited practice designation or a wind forecast only matters once you know which players were close to begin with.
Never bench a clearly better player over a tough matchup alone; a stud facing a hard matchup is still usually a better start than a replacement-level player facing an easy one.
FAQ
Comparing up to 8 players at once is built into the board above; nothing here requires an account.
Yes. Add up to 8 players to one board and set how many of them you plan to start. The tool ranks the whole group and shows where the close calls sit, alongside the top pick.
It reprices every player under the format set in the site header, including PPR, half PPR, standard, TE premium, and superflex. Connect a Sleeper league from the board and the verdict switches to that league's own literal scoring rules instead of a generic format.
It is the probability that the player you are told to start actually outscores the closest player left on your bench, built from each player's projected points and how much those points tend to vary week to week. A figure near 50 percent means the call is close; one near 100 percent means it is not.
Projections and injury designations refresh once a day. The timestamp shown above the board is the exact time the numbers below it were last pulled.
Yes. Running a comparison costs nothing and does not require an account.
A ranking is a rest-of-season opinion; this verdict is for one week only. A player can sit ahead of another for the rest of the year and still be the worse start in a single week with a tougher matchup or a bye.
Whichever one this tool ranks higher for the week you are setting. Points are compared directly across positions here, which is exactly what a flex decision calls for, and the higher-ranked player is the better start regardless of position.
League Pulse
This tool answers one question at a time: of the players you put in, which ones to start. League Pulse answers a bigger one, your whole starting lineup for the week, filled from your actual Sleeper roster under your league's real scoring.
Start Jayden Daniels. Daniels projects 0.0 points clear of Bryce Young in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore Young.
Put Daniels and Young on the boardStart Joe Burrow. Burrow projects 0.2 points clear of Trevor Lawrence in Redraft 1QB PPR, 51 percent to outscore Lawrence.
Check Burrow against LawrenceWorkload settles most running back decisions. Carries plus targets, not yards per carry, is the strongest predictor of a week's points, so the tool weighs a back's expected touch share ahead of anything about breakaway speed. Matchup counts for less here than reputation suggests: a defense that is stout against the run can still give up a pile of points through the passing game, so a back who catches passes keeps a real floor even against a tough front. Goal-line and short-yardage role adds touchdown equity a pure yardage projection misses, which is why work inside the ten is tracked as its own input rather than folded into one blended rate.
Start Bucky Irving. Irving projects 0.0 points clear of Jonathan Taylor in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore Taylor.
Full breakdown: Irving vs TaylorStart Josh Jacobs. Jacobs projects 0.1 points clear of James Cook III in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore III.
Put Jacobs and III on the boardStart Jaylen Warren. Warren projects 0.1 points clear of Bhayshul Tuten in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore Tuten.
Check Warren against TutenStart Jalen Coker. Coker projects 0.0 points clear of Michael Wilson in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore Wilson.
Full breakdown: Coker vs WilsonStart Carnell Tate. Tate projects 0.0 points clear of Matthew Golden in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore Golden.
Put Tate and Golden on the boardStart Christian Watson. Watson projects 0.0 points clear of Garrett Wilson in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore Wilson.
Check Watson against WilsonStart Harold Fannin Jr.. Jr. projects 0.0 points clear of Brenton Strange in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore Strange.
Full breakdown: Jr. vs StrangeStart Tucker Kraft. Kraft projects 0.0 points clear of Sam LaPorta in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore LaPorta.
Put Kraft and LaPorta on the boardStart Sam LaPorta. LaPorta projects 0.1 points clear of T.J. Hockenson in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore Hockenson.
Check LaPorta against HockensonDefense and kicker both live and die by game script more than most positions. A defense's points lean heavily on takeaways and touchdowns, among the least predictable events in football, so the matchup, an opponent's turnover rate and offensive line quality, carries more weight here than for an offensive skill position. A kicker's floor is field goal volume, which rises in a game expected to stall in the red zone and falls in one expected to end in touchdowns, so the same game-environment signal that lowers a kicker's outlook often raises the defense's. Both are the most matchup-driven calls on the board and worth checking against the week's projected team totals.
Start Chad Ryland. Ryland projects 0.0 points clear of Jake Bates in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore Bates.
Full breakdown: Ryland vs BatesStart Evan McPherson. McPherson projects 0.1 points clear of Chase McLaughlin in Redraft 1QB PPR, 50 percent to outscore McLaughlin.
Put McPherson and McLaughlin on the boardStart Minnesota Vikings. Vikings projects 0.1 points clear of Cleveland Browns in Redraft 1QB PPR, 51 percent to outscore Browns.
Check Vikings against BrownsWeek 8, 2026. Projections updated Oct 28, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT.
The verdict
Start Joe Burrow. Burrow projects 0.2 points clear of Trevor Lawrence in Redraft 1QB PPR, 51 percent to outscore Lawrence.
A horizontally scrolling row of 2 player cards, starters first. Use the "Show as a list" button above to read them stacked instead.
Start this player
QB (quarterback)
CIN
opponent (TEN)
Projected points
Redraft 1QB PPR21.6
Floor 13.5,Ceiling 29.8
Matchup
Sit this player
QB (quarterback)
JAX
opponent (IND)
Projected points
Redraft 1QB PPR21.5
Start this player
QB (quarterback)
CIN
opponent (TEN)
Projected points
Redraft 1QB PPR21.6
Each range bar runs from floor to ceiling on one shared scale, 0 to 35 points, so the bars compare across cards.
Value is the player's trade price. This week's points are the projection above.
Win probability: Joe Burrow 51 percent, Trevor Lawrence 49 percent. The two teams are close to even.
Connect a Sleeper league and we will score every player under your league's own rules, then work out how many points each one really adds to your starting lineup.
Same numbers, weighted for the question you are asking.
The next game only: projection, matchup, and whether he is healthy.
Beacon Edge
Weighted for long-term value, age, and market signal
Trevor Lawrence holds a slight edge on the Beacon Edge, averaged over 14 scored categories weighted for long-term value, age, and market signal. Ranked by composite: Trevor Lawrence 55%, Joe Burrow 45%.
Averaged across 14 scored categories. The table below shows exactly which players and categories moved it.
Every player's share of the weighted average, ranked.
Trevor Lawrence holds a slight edge on the Beacon Edge, averaged over 14 scored categories weighted for long-term value, age, and market signal. Ranked by composite: Trevor Lawrence 55%, Joe Burrow 45%.
Game environment
Beat rate
52%
Availability
100%
Recent form
Last 6 weeks, 2026
Met or beat the projection in 4 of 6 graded weeks.
| Week | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scored | 15.2 | 16.2 | 22.6 | 25.7 | 24.6 | 28.9 |
| Projected | 20.9 | 17.8 | 17.5 | 19.6 | 19.9 | 19.7 |
Value (FF Beacon)
5,254
Overall rank
#35
Floor 12.4,Ceiling 30.5
Matchup
Game environment
Beat rate
59%
Availability
100%
Recent form
Last 6 weeks, 2026
Met or beat the projection in 4 of 6 graded weeks.
| Week | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scored | 26.1 | 7.2 | 20.8 | 13.1 | 22.7 | 28.3 |
| Projected | 18.6 | 17.2 | 19.3 | 20.4 | 17.9 | 18.4 |
Value (FF Beacon)
4,513
Overall rank
#46
Floor 13.5,Ceiling 29.8
Matchup
Game environment
Beat rate
52%
Availability
100%
Recent form
Last 6 weeks, 2026
Met or beat the projection in 4 of 6 graded weeks.
| Week | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scored | 15.2 | 16.2 | 22.6 | 25.7 | 24.6 | 28.9 |
| Projected | 20.9 | 17.8 | 17.5 | 19.6 | 19.9 | 19.7 |
Value (FF Beacon)
5,254
Overall rank
#35
Sit this player
QB (quarterback)
JAX
opponent (IND)
Projected points
Redraft 1QB PPR21.5
Floor 12.4,Ceiling 30.5
Matchup
Game environment
Beat rate
59%
Availability
100%
Recent form
Last 6 weeks, 2026
Met or beat the projection in 4 of 6 graded weeks.
| Week | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Value (FF Beacon)
4,513
Overall rank
#46
| Player | Composite |
|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence (leader) | 55% |
| Joe Burrow | 45% |
Each bar is how far that category moved the meter, in percentage points. They add up to the split above.
Each category's pull toward Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence, in percentage points. Totals: Joe Burrow 3.8 points, Trevor Lawrence 8.0 points, for a final split of 45 to 55.
FF Beacon Value
Weighted at 28% of this lens
FF Beacon Value: favors Joe Burrow by 1.1 percentage points, carrying 28 percent of the weight.
Upside
Weighted at 10% of this lens
Upside: favors Trevor Lawrence by 0.2 percentage points, carrying 10 percent of the weight.
Overall Rank
Weighted at 9% of this lens
Overall Rank: favors Joe Burrow by 0.6 percentage points, carrying 9 percent of the weight.
Positional Rank
Weighted at 7% of this lens
Positional Rank: favors Joe Burrow by 1.2 percentage points, carrying 7 percent of the weight.
Recent Production
Weighted at 5% of this lens
Recent Production: favors Joe Burrow by 1.0 percentage points, carrying 5 percent of the weight.
Age & Long-Term Appeal
Weighted at 16% of this lens
Age & Long-Term Appeal: favors Trevor Lawrence by 7.8 percentage points, carrying 16 percent of the weight.
Totals: Joe Burrow 3.8 points, Trevor Lawrence 8.0 points, for a final split of 45 to 55. 8 further categories scored too close to move the result.
| Category | Weight | Favors | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| FF Beacon Value | 28% | Joe Burrow | 1.1 |
| Upside | 10% | Trevor Lawrence | 0.2 |
| Overall Rank | 9% | Joe Burrow | 0.6 |
| Positional Rank | 7% | Joe Burrow | 1.2 |
| Recent Production | 5% | Joe Burrow | 1.0 |
| Age & Long-Term Appeal | 16% | Trevor Lawrence | 7.8 |
| Category | Joe Burrow | Trevor Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| FF Beacon Value Current market value on the trusted FF Beacon scale for this format. Counts 28% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: 5,254 Best | Trevor Lawrence: 4,513 |
| Overall Rank Where each player sits among every player at every position. Counts 9% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: #35 BestUp 8 in 30 days | Trevor Lawrence: #46 Up 10 in 30 days |
| Positional Rank Rank within their own position group. Counts 7% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: QB3 BestTier 1 | Trevor Lawrence: QB6 Tier 1 |
| 30-Day Trend How each player's value has moved over the last month. Counts 7% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: +5.6% BestRange 4,653 to 5,421 | Trevor Lawrence: +4.3% Range 4,089 to 4,807 |
| Recent Production Most recent full-season finish within their position by fantasy points. Counts 5% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: QB6 (2026) BestBefore that: QB29, QB3 | Trevor Lawrence: QB13 (2026) Before that: QB4, QB27 |
| Opportunity Role on their team's depth chart, a proxy for expected volume. Counts 3% toward the verdict for this lens Even | Joe Burrow: Starter Depth chart slot 1 | Trevor Lawrence: Starter Depth chart slot 1 |
| Health Current injury designation, which decides whether he can help you at all. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: Healthy | Trevor Lawrence: Healthy |
| Rest-of-Season Points Projected fantasy points across every remaining game, adjusted for matchups and reliability. Counts 3% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: 212.6 11 games left | Trevor Lawrence: 247.9 Best11 games left |
| Projected Per Game Average projected points in each remaining game. Counts 2% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: 19.3 Range 17.1 to 21.5 | Trevor Lawrence: 22.5 BestRange 19.7 to 25.4 |
| Next Game Projected points in the very next game we have a projection for. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: 21.6 Week 8 vs TEN | Trevor Lawrence: 21.5 Week 8 vs IND |
| Next Matchup How generous the next opponent has been to this position, from our own defensive splits. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: Neutral vs TEN, 1.00x | Trevor Lawrence: Neutral vs IND, 1.00x |
| Remaining Schedule Average matchup difficulty across every game left, from our own defensive splits. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: Neutral 1.00x average | Trevor Lawrence: Neutral 1.00x average |
| Beat Rate How often he meets or beats his own weekly projection. Weeks he was projected for but missed count against him. Counts 2% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: 52% 31 graded games | Trevor Lawrence: 59% Best33 graded games |
| Availability Share of the weeks he was projected for that he actually played. Counts 2% toward the verdict for this lens Even | Joe Burrow: 100% | Trevor Lawrence: 100% |
| Week-to-Week Consistency How much his weekly score bounces around his projection. Steadier is better for setting a lineup. Counts 2% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: Metronome BestSpread 0.38 | Trevor Lawrence: Metronome Spread 0.42 |
| Age & Long-Term Appeal Younger players hold value longer in dynasty formats. Counts 16% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: 29.9 yrs Year 7 | Trevor Lawrence: 27.1 yrs BestYear 6 |
| Risk Level Lower-risk profiles combine a steady weekly score, a proven tier, and prime age. Counts 5% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: Metronome | Trevor Lawrence: Metronome Best |
| Upside Room to climb, blending recent momentum, youth, and tier. Counts 10% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: Trending up | Trevor Lawrence: Trending up Best |
| Dynasty Outlook A plain-language read blending market value with age. Shown for context; its inputs are already scored above, so it does not count twice. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: Win-now asset Age 29.9 | Trevor Lawrence: Blue-chip Age 27.1 |
| Redraft Outlook A plain-language read blending rank with recent production. Shown for context; its inputs are already scored above. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: Weekly starter | Trevor Lawrence: Every-week flex |
FF Beacon Value
Current market value on the trusted FF Beacon scale for this format.
Counts 28% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
5,254
BestTrevor Lawrence
4,513
Overall Rank
Where each player sits among every player at every position.
Counts 9% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
#35
BestUp 8 in 30 days
The plain-English answers, no table-reading required.
Best overall
Trevor Lawrence takes 55% of the composite for dynasty value.
What is driving it
Trevor Lawrence leads on age & long-term appeal and ff beacon value.
Safer floor
Joe Burrow is the steadiest weekly hold, carrying 2% of the dynasty value composite.
Higher upside
Trevor Lawrence has the most room to climb from here.
Best trade target
Joe Burrow carries the strongest current value.
Beacon Edge
Weighted for rest-of-season projection, production, and reliability
Joe Burrow holds a slight edge on the Beacon Edge, averaged over 16 scored categories weighted for rest-of-season projection, production, and reliability. Ranked by composite: Joe Burrow 52%, Trevor Lawrence 48%.
Averaged across 16 scored categories. The table below shows exactly which players and categories moved it.
Every player's share of the weighted average, ranked.
Joe Burrow holds a slight edge on the Beacon Edge, averaged over 16 scored categories weighted for rest-of-season projection, production, and reliability. Ranked by composite: Joe Burrow 52%, Trevor Lawrence 48%.
| Player | Composite |
|---|---|
| Joe Burrow (leader) | 52% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 48% |
Each bar is how far that category moved the meter, in percentage points. They add up to the split above.
Each category's pull toward Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence, in percentage points. Totals: Joe Burrow 3.4 points, Trevor Lawrence 1.3 points, for a final split of 52 to 48.
Rest-of-Season Points
Weighted at 20% of this lens
Rest-of-Season Points: favors Trevor Lawrence by 0.8 percentage points, carrying 20 percent of the weight.
Overall Rank
Weighted at 12% of this lens
Overall Rank: favors Joe Burrow by 0.8 percentage points, carrying 12 percent of the weight.
Recent Production
Weighted at 8% of this lens
Recent Production: favors Joe Burrow by 1.5 percentage points, carrying 8 percent of the weight.
| Category | Joe Burrow | Trevor Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| FF Beacon Value Current market value on the trusted FF Beacon scale for this format. Counts 7% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: 5,254 Best | Trevor Lawrence: 4,513 |
| Overall Rank Where each player sits among every player at every position. Counts 12% toward the verdict for this lens |
The plain-English answers, no table-reading required.
Best overall
Joe Burrow takes 52% of the composite for the rest of this season.
What is driving it
Joe Burrow leads on rest-of-season points and overall rank.
Beacon Edge
Weighted for next game's projection, matchup, and health
The Beacon Edge is a toss-up among the top players, averaged over 6 scored categories weighted for next game's projection, matchup, and health. Ranked by composite: Trevor Lawrence 51%, Joe Burrow 49%.
These players grade out nearly even across every category we can measure. The edge is small enough that your roster needs should decide it.
Every player's share of the weighted average, ranked.
The Beacon Edge is a toss-up among the top players, averaged over 6 scored categories weighted for next game's projection, matchup, and health. Ranked by composite: Trevor Lawrence 51%, Joe Burrow 49%.
| Player | Composite |
|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 51% |
| Joe Burrow | 49% |
Each bar is how far that category moved the meter, in percentage points. They add up to the split above.
Each category's pull toward Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence, in percentage points. Totals: Joe Burrow 0.0 points, Trevor Lawrence 0.5 points, for a final split of 49 to 51.
Beat Rate
Weighted at 16% of this lens
Beat Rate: favors Trevor Lawrence by 0.5 percentage points, carrying 16 percent of the weight.
Totals: Joe Burrow 0.0 points, Trevor Lawrence 0.5 points, for a final split of 49 to 51. 5 further categories scored too close to move the result.
| Category | Weight | Favors | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beat Rate |
| Category | Joe Burrow | Trevor Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| FF Beacon Value Current market value on the trusted FF Beacon scale for this format. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: 5,254 | Trevor Lawrence: 4,513 |
| Overall Rank Where each player sits among every player at every position. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: #35 |
The plain-English answers, no table-reading required.
Best overall
This group grades out nearly even for this week.
Safer floor
Joe Burrow is the steadiest weekly hold, carrying 11% of the this week composite.
Every remaining game, projected and matchup-adjusted.
Joe Burrow
Range 188 to 237 points. Schedule: neutral.
Trevor Lawrence
Range 216 to 279 points. Schedule: neutral.
Players with the same total can get there very differently. This is the shape.
Weekly projected points from week 8 to week 18. Joe Burrow totals 213 points, Trevor Lawrence totals 248 points.
How generous each upcoming defense has been to this position, from our own splits going back to 2020. Above 1.00 helps the player.
Joe Burrow has a neutral at 1.00 times average. Trevor Lawrence has a neutral at 1.00 times average.
Joe BurrowNeutral
The band is one standard deviation either side, built from how much this player's own weekly scores actually bounce around, not a flat percentage.
Joe Burrow projects for 213 points, in a range from 188 to 237. Trevor Lawrence projects for 248 points, in a range from 216 to 279.
Joe Burrow
188 to 237 pts
Trevor Lawrence
216 to 279 pts
| Player | Floor | Projection | Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 188 | 213 | 237 |
Projections start from Sleeper's weekly numbers and are then adjusted by our own model for how generous each opponent has been to the position, how reliably the player has hit the projection, how often the player has been available, and any current injury designation. This is the same model behind Power Pulse and the FAAB calculator.
Measured against each player's own weekly projections, not against each other.
Joe Burrow
From 31 graded games across 31 projected weeks.
Trevor Lawrence
From 33 graded games across 33 projected weeks.
One mark per graded game in the 2026 season, placed by how far above or below projection the player finished. A tight cluster near the middle line is a player you can set and forget. The tiles above cover every season we have graded, so their game counts are higher.
Joe Burrow finished above projection in 4 of 6 graded games, averaging plus 2.9 points. Trevor Lawrence finished above projection in 4 of 6 graded games, averaging plus 1.1 points.
Every projected week of the 2026 season sorted by how the real game compared. Two players with the same average can live in completely different bars.
Joe Burrow: 3 boom, 2 about right, 1 bust, 11 missed, out of 17 projected weeks. Trevor Lawrence: 3 boom, 1 about right, 2 bust, 11 missed, out of 17 projected weeks.
Joe Burrow
Boom 3, About right 2, Bust 1, Did not play 11
Trevor Lawrence
Boom 3, About right 1, Bust 2, Did not play 11
A week a player was projected for but did not play counts as a miss, not as a week that never happened. Recent seasons count for far more than old ones, because roles and offenses change year to year. Both are deliberate: they make the number lower and more honest than a raw hit rate.
Draft price, value history, and the trades people actually made.
Joe Burrow
Sleeper PPR ADP
up 8 in 30d
Value volatility over 30 days: 227.6.
Joe Burrow is going roughly 1.4 round later than our ranking suggests. That is a buying window.
Rounds assume 12 teams.
Trevor Lawrence
Sleeper PPR ADP
up 10 in 30d
Value volatility over 30 days: 166.5.
Trevor Lawrence is going roughly 4.6 rounds later than our ranking suggests. That is a buying window.
Rounds assume 12 teams.
Redraft 1QB PPR, FF Beacon. Every player on one axis, so the shapes are directly comparable.
Joe Burrow went from 5,095 to 5,254, up 159. Trevor Lawrence went from 3,779 to 4,513, up 734
Actual deals from leagues synced through League Pulse. What people paid, not what a calculator says they should have.
Dynasty PPR SF TEP
Oct 21, 2026
Regular-season totals, side by side. Best marks the top number in each row.
Overview
| Stat | Joe Burrow | Trevor Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 6 Best | 6 Best |
| Total yards | 1,713 Best | 1,550 |
| Scrimmage yards | 60 | 70 Best |
| Total TDs | 16 Best | 14 |
| Fantasy points (PPR) | 133.1 Best | 118.2 |
| PPR per game | 22.2 Best | 19.7 |
Passing
| Stat | Joe Burrow | Trevor Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| Completions | 157 Best | 120 |
| Pass attempts | 219 Best | 184 |
| Completion % | 71.7% Best | 65.2% |
| Passing yards | 1,653 Best | 1,480 |
| Passing TDs | 15 Best | 14 |
| Interceptions | 3 Best | 4 |
| Yards / attempt | 7.5 | 8.0 Best |
Rushing
| Stat | Joe Burrow | Trevor Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| Carries | 17 Best | 17 Best |
| Rushing yards | 60 | 70 Best |
| Rushing TDs | 1 Best | 0 |
| Yards / carry | 3.5 | 4.1 Best |
One stat, week by week, for every player.
| Week | Joe Burrow | Trevor Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | 274 Bestvs TB | 248 vs CLE |
| Wk 2 | 206 Bestvs HOU | 195 vs DEN |
| Wk 3 | 295 Bestvs PIT | 207 vs NE |
| Wk 4 | 434 Bestvs JAX | 227 vs CIN |
| Wk 5 | 200 vs MIA | 356 Bestvs PHI |
| Wk 6 | - | 317 Bestvs HOU |
| Wk 7 | 304 Bestvs BAL | - |
Real trades are rarely one player for one player. If these players are only part of a bigger deal, build the whole thing in the Signal Check trade calculator: it prices multi-player packages and draft picks together and grades the trade end to end.
Build the full trade in the Signal Check Trade Calculator| 26.1 |
| 7.2 |
| 20.8 |
| 13.1 |
| 22.7 |
| 28.3 |
| Projected | 18.6 | 17.2 | 19.3 | 20.4 | 17.9 | 18.4 |
|---|
Trevor Lawrence
#46
Up 10 in 30 days
Positional Rank
Rank within their own position group.
Counts 7% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
QB3
BestTier 1
Trevor Lawrence
QB6
Tier 1
30-Day Trend
How each player's value has moved over the last month.
Counts 7% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
+5.6%
BestRange 4,653 to 5,421
Trevor Lawrence
+4.3%
Range 4,089 to 4,807
Recent Production
Most recent full-season finish within their position by fantasy points.
Counts 5% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
QB6 (2026)
BestBefore that: QB29, QB3
Trevor Lawrence
QB13 (2026)
Before that: QB4, QB27
Opportunity
Role on their team's depth chart, a proxy for expected volume.
Counts 3% toward the verdict for this lens
Even
Joe Burrow
Starter
Depth chart slot 1
Trevor Lawrence
Starter
Depth chart slot 1
Health
Current injury designation, which decides whether he can help you at all.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
Healthy
Trevor Lawrence
Healthy
Rest-of-Season Points
Projected fantasy points across every remaining game, adjusted for matchups and reliability.
Counts 3% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
212.6
11 games left
Trevor Lawrence
247.9
Best11 games left
Projected Per Game
Average projected points in each remaining game.
Counts 2% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
19.3
Range 17.1 to 21.5
Trevor Lawrence
22.5
BestRange 19.7 to 25.4
Next Game
Projected points in the very next game we have a projection for.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
21.6
Week 8 vs TEN
Trevor Lawrence
21.5
Week 8 vs IND
Next Matchup
How generous the next opponent has been to this position, from our own defensive splits.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
Neutral
vs TEN, 1.00x
Trevor Lawrence
Neutral
vs IND, 1.00x
Remaining Schedule
Average matchup difficulty across every game left, from our own defensive splits.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
Neutral
1.00x average
Trevor Lawrence
Neutral
1.00x average
Beat Rate
How often he meets or beats his own weekly projection. Weeks he was projected for but missed count against him.
Counts 2% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
52%
31 graded games
Trevor Lawrence
59%
Best33 graded games
Availability
Share of the weeks he was projected for that he actually played.
Counts 2% toward the verdict for this lens
Even
Joe Burrow
100%
Trevor Lawrence
100%
Week-to-Week Consistency
How much his weekly score bounces around his projection. Steadier is better for setting a lineup.
Counts 2% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
Metronome
BestSpread 0.38
Trevor Lawrence
Metronome
Spread 0.42
Age & Long-Term Appeal
Younger players hold value longer in dynasty formats.
Counts 16% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
29.9 yrs
Year 7
Trevor Lawrence
27.1 yrs
BestYear 6
Risk Level
Lower-risk profiles combine a steady weekly score, a proven tier, and prime age.
Counts 5% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
Metronome
Trevor Lawrence
Metronome
BestUpside
Room to climb, blending recent momentum, youth, and tier.
Counts 10% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
Trending up
Trevor Lawrence
Trending up
BestDynasty Outlook
A plain-language read blending market value with age. Shown for context; its inputs are already scored above, so it does not count twice.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
Win-now asset
Age 29.9
Trevor Lawrence
Blue-chip
Age 27.1
Redraft Outlook
A plain-language read blending rank with recent production. Shown for context; its inputs are already scored above.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
Weekly starter
Trevor Lawrence
Every-week flex
Beat Rate
Weighted at 8% of this lens
Beat Rate: favors Trevor Lawrence by 0.2 percentage points, carrying 8 percent of the weight.
Projected Per Game
Weighted at 8% of this lens
Projected Per Game: favors Trevor Lawrence by 0.3 percentage points, carrying 8 percent of the weight.
FF Beacon Value
Weighted at 7% of this lens
FF Beacon Value: favors Joe Burrow by 0.3 percentage points, carrying 7 percent of the weight.
Positional Rank
Weighted at 5% of this lens
Positional Rank: favors Joe Burrow by 0.8 percentage points, carrying 5 percent of the weight.
Totals: Joe Burrow 3.4 points, Trevor Lawrence 1.3 points, for a final split of 52 to 48. 9 further categories scored too close to move the result.
| Category | Weight | Favors | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest-of-Season Points | 20% | Trevor Lawrence | 0.8 |
| Overall Rank | 12% | Joe Burrow | 0.8 |
| Recent Production | 8% | Joe Burrow | 1.5 |
| Beat Rate | 8% | Trevor Lawrence | 0.2 |
| Projected Per Game | 8% | Trevor Lawrence | 0.3 |
| FF Beacon Value | 7% | Joe Burrow | 0.3 |
| Positional Rank | 5% | Joe Burrow | 0.8 |
Joe Burrow: #35 BestUp 8 in 30 days |
Trevor Lawrence: #46 Up 10 in 30 days |
| Positional Rank Rank within their own position group. Counts 5% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: QB3 BestTier 1 | Trevor Lawrence: QB6 Tier 1 |
|---|
| 30-Day Trend How each player's value has moved over the last month. Counts 2% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: +5.6% BestRange 4,653 to 5,421 | Trevor Lawrence: +4.3% Range 4,089 to 4,807 |
|---|
| Recent Production Most recent full-season finish within their position by fantasy points. Counts 8% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: QB6 (2026) BestBefore that: QB29, QB3 | Trevor Lawrence: QB13 (2026) Before that: QB4, QB27 |
|---|
| Opportunity Role on their team's depth chart, a proxy for expected volume. Counts 7% toward the verdict for this lens Even | Joe Burrow: Starter Depth chart slot 1 | Trevor Lawrence: Starter Depth chart slot 1 |
|---|
| Health Current injury designation, which decides whether he can help you at all. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: Healthy | Trevor Lawrence: Healthy |
|---|
| Rest-of-Season Points Projected fantasy points across every remaining game, adjusted for matchups and reliability. Counts 20% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: 212.6 11 games left | Trevor Lawrence: 247.9 Best11 games left |
|---|
| Projected Per Game Average projected points in each remaining game. Counts 8% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: 19.3 Range 17.1 to 21.5 | Trevor Lawrence: 22.5 BestRange 19.7 to 25.4 |
|---|
| Next Game Projected points in the very next game we have a projection for. Counts 2% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: 21.6 BestWeek 8 vs TEN | Trevor Lawrence: 21.5 Week 8 vs IND |
|---|
| Next Matchup How generous the next opponent has been to this position, from our own defensive splits. Counts 2% toward the verdict for this lens Even | Joe Burrow: Neutral vs TEN, 1.00x | Trevor Lawrence: Neutral vs IND, 1.00x |
|---|
| Remaining Schedule Average matchup difficulty across every game left, from our own defensive splits. Counts 5% toward the verdict for this lens Even | Joe Burrow: Neutral 1.00x average | Trevor Lawrence: Neutral 1.00x average |
|---|
| Beat Rate How often he meets or beats his own weekly projection. Weeks he was projected for but missed count against him. Counts 8% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: 52% 31 graded games | Trevor Lawrence: 59% Best33 graded games |
|---|
| Availability Share of the weeks he was projected for that he actually played. Counts 7% toward the verdict for this lens Even | Joe Burrow: 100% | Trevor Lawrence: 100% |
|---|
| Week-to-Week Consistency How much his weekly score bounces around his projection. Steadier is better for setting a lineup. Counts 5% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: Metronome BestSpread 0.38 | Trevor Lawrence: Metronome Spread 0.42 |
|---|
| Age & Long-Term Appeal Younger players hold value longer in dynasty formats. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: 29.9 yrs Year 7 | Trevor Lawrence: 27.1 yrs Year 6 |
|---|
| Risk Level Lower-risk profiles combine a steady weekly score, a proven tier, and prime age. Counts 2% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: Metronome | Trevor Lawrence: Metronome Best |
|---|
| Upside Room to climb, blending recent momentum, youth, and tier. Counts 2% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: Trending up | Trevor Lawrence: Trending up Best |
|---|
| Dynasty Outlook A plain-language read blending market value with age. Shown for context; its inputs are already scored above, so it does not count twice. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: Win-now asset Age 29.9 | Trevor Lawrence: Blue-chip Age 27.1 |
|---|
| Redraft Outlook A plain-language read blending rank with recent production. Shown for context; its inputs are already scored above. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: Weekly starter | Trevor Lawrence: Every-week flex |
|---|
FF Beacon Value
Current market value on the trusted FF Beacon scale for this format.
Counts 7% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
5,254
BestTrevor Lawrence
4,513
Overall Rank
Where each player sits among every player at every position.
Counts 12% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
#35
BestUp 8 in 30 days
Trevor Lawrence
#46
Up 10 in 30 days
Positional Rank
Rank within their own position group.
Counts 5% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
QB3
BestTier 1
Trevor Lawrence
QB6
Tier 1
30-Day Trend
How each player's value has moved over the last month.
Counts 2% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
+5.6%
BestRange 4,653 to 5,421
Trevor Lawrence
+4.3%
Range 4,089 to 4,807
Recent Production
Most recent full-season finish within their position by fantasy points.
Counts 8% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
QB6 (2026)
BestBefore that: QB29, QB3
Trevor Lawrence
QB13 (2026)
Before that: QB4, QB27
Opportunity
Role on their team's depth chart, a proxy for expected volume.
Counts 7% toward the verdict for this lens
Even
Joe Burrow
Starter
Depth chart slot 1
Trevor Lawrence
Starter
Depth chart slot 1
Health
Current injury designation, which decides whether he can help you at all.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
Healthy
Trevor Lawrence
Healthy
Rest-of-Season Points
Projected fantasy points across every remaining game, adjusted for matchups and reliability.
Counts 20% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
212.6
11 games left
Trevor Lawrence
247.9
Best11 games left
Projected Per Game
Average projected points in each remaining game.
Counts 8% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
19.3
Range 17.1 to 21.5
Trevor Lawrence
22.5
BestRange 19.7 to 25.4
Next Game
Projected points in the very next game we have a projection for.
Counts 2% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
21.6
BestWeek 8 vs TEN
Trevor Lawrence
21.5
Week 8 vs IND
Next Matchup
How generous the next opponent has been to this position, from our own defensive splits.
Counts 2% toward the verdict for this lens
Even
Joe Burrow
Neutral
vs TEN, 1.00x
Trevor Lawrence
Neutral
vs IND, 1.00x
Remaining Schedule
Average matchup difficulty across every game left, from our own defensive splits.
Counts 5% toward the verdict for this lens
Even
Joe Burrow
Neutral
1.00x average
Trevor Lawrence
Neutral
1.00x average
Beat Rate
How often he meets or beats his own weekly projection. Weeks he was projected for but missed count against him.
Counts 8% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
52%
31 graded games
Trevor Lawrence
59%
Best33 graded games
Availability
Share of the weeks he was projected for that he actually played.
Counts 7% toward the verdict for this lens
Even
Joe Burrow
100%
Trevor Lawrence
100%
Week-to-Week Consistency
How much his weekly score bounces around his projection. Steadier is better for setting a lineup.
Counts 5% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
Metronome
BestSpread 0.38
Trevor Lawrence
Metronome
Spread 0.42
Age & Long-Term Appeal
Younger players hold value longer in dynasty formats.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
29.9 yrs
Year 7
Trevor Lawrence
27.1 yrs
Year 6
Risk Level
Lower-risk profiles combine a steady weekly score, a proven tier, and prime age.
Counts 2% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
Metronome
Trevor Lawrence
Metronome
BestUpside
Room to climb, blending recent momentum, youth, and tier.
Counts 2% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
Trending up
Trevor Lawrence
Trending up
BestDynasty Outlook
A plain-language read blending market value with age. Shown for context; its inputs are already scored above, so it does not count twice.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
Win-now asset
Age 29.9
Trevor Lawrence
Blue-chip
Age 27.1
Redraft Outlook
A plain-language read blending rank with recent production. Shown for context; its inputs are already scored above.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
Weekly starter
Trevor Lawrence
Every-week flex
Safer floor
Joe Burrow is the steadiest weekly hold, carrying 5% of the the rest of this season composite.
Higher upside
Trevor Lawrence has the most room to climb from here.
Best trade target
Joe Burrow carries the strongest current value.
| 16% |
| Trevor Lawrence |
| 0.5 |
Up 8 in 30 days
Trevor Lawrence: #46 Up 10 in 30 days |
| Positional Rank Rank within their own position group. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: QB3 Tier 1 | Trevor Lawrence: QB6 Tier 1 |
|---|
| 30-Day Trend How each player's value has moved over the last month. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: +5.6% Range 4,653 to 5,421 | Trevor Lawrence: +4.3% Range 4,089 to 4,807 |
|---|
| Recent Production Most recent full-season finish within their position by fantasy points. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: QB6 (2026) Before that: QB29, QB3 | Trevor Lawrence: QB13 (2026) Before that: QB4, QB27 |
|---|
| Opportunity Role on their team's depth chart, a proxy for expected volume. Counts 13% toward the verdict for this lens Even | Joe Burrow: Starter Depth chart slot 1 | Trevor Lawrence: Starter Depth chart slot 1 |
|---|
| Health Current injury designation, which decides whether he can help you at all. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: Healthy | Trevor Lawrence: Healthy |
|---|
| Rest-of-Season Points Projected fantasy points across every remaining game, adjusted for matchups and reliability. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: 212.6 11 games left | Trevor Lawrence: 247.9 11 games left |
|---|
| Projected Per Game Average projected points in each remaining game. Counts 4% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: 19.3 Range 17.1 to 21.5 | Trevor Lawrence: 22.5 BestRange 19.7 to 25.4 |
|---|
| Next Game Projected points in the very next game we have a projection for. Counts 38% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: 21.6 BestWeek 8 vs TEN | Trevor Lawrence: 21.5 Week 8 vs IND |
|---|
| Next Matchup How generous the next opponent has been to this position, from our own defensive splits. Counts 18% toward the verdict for this lens Even | Joe Burrow: Neutral vs TEN, 1.00x | Trevor Lawrence: Neutral vs IND, 1.00x |
|---|
| Remaining Schedule Average matchup difficulty across every game left, from our own defensive splits. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: Neutral 1.00x average | Trevor Lawrence: Neutral 1.00x average |
|---|
| Beat Rate How often he meets or beats his own weekly projection. Weeks he was projected for but missed count against him. Counts 16% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: 52% 31 graded games | Trevor Lawrence: 59% Best33 graded games |
|---|
| Availability Share of the weeks he was projected for that he actually played. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: 100% | Trevor Lawrence: 100% |
|---|
| Week-to-Week Consistency How much his weekly score bounces around his projection. Steadier is better for setting a lineup. Counts 11% toward the verdict for this lens | Joe Burrow: Metronome BestSpread 0.38 | Trevor Lawrence: Metronome Spread 0.42 |
|---|
| Age & Long-Term Appeal Younger players hold value longer in dynasty formats. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: 29.9 yrs Year 7 | Trevor Lawrence: 27.1 yrs Year 6 |
|---|
| Risk Level Lower-risk profiles combine a steady weekly score, a proven tier, and prime age. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: Metronome | Trevor Lawrence: Metronome |
|---|
| Upside Room to climb, blending recent momentum, youth, and tier. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: Trending up | Trevor Lawrence: Trending up |
|---|
| Dynasty Outlook A plain-language read blending market value with age. Shown for context; its inputs are already scored above, so it does not count twice. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: Win-now asset Age 29.9 | Trevor Lawrence: Blue-chip Age 27.1 |
|---|
| Redraft Outlook A plain-language read blending rank with recent production. Shown for context; its inputs are already scored above. Context only, not counted toward the verdict | Joe Burrow: Weekly starter | Trevor Lawrence: Every-week flex |
|---|
FF Beacon Value
Current market value on the trusted FF Beacon scale for this format.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
5,254
Trevor Lawrence
4,513
Overall Rank
Where each player sits among every player at every position.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
#35
Up 8 in 30 days
Trevor Lawrence
#46
Up 10 in 30 days
Positional Rank
Rank within their own position group.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
QB3
Tier 1
Trevor Lawrence
QB6
Tier 1
30-Day Trend
How each player's value has moved over the last month.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
+5.6%
Range 4,653 to 5,421
Trevor Lawrence
+4.3%
Range 4,089 to 4,807
Recent Production
Most recent full-season finish within their position by fantasy points.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
QB6 (2026)
Before that: QB29, QB3
Trevor Lawrence
QB13 (2026)
Before that: QB4, QB27
Opportunity
Role on their team's depth chart, a proxy for expected volume.
Counts 13% toward the verdict for this lens
Even
Joe Burrow
Starter
Depth chart slot 1
Trevor Lawrence
Starter
Depth chart slot 1
Health
Current injury designation, which decides whether he can help you at all.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
Healthy
Trevor Lawrence
Healthy
Rest-of-Season Points
Projected fantasy points across every remaining game, adjusted for matchups and reliability.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
212.6
11 games left
Trevor Lawrence
247.9
11 games left
Projected Per Game
Average projected points in each remaining game.
Counts 4% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
19.3
Range 17.1 to 21.5
Trevor Lawrence
22.5
BestRange 19.7 to 25.4
Next Game
Projected points in the very next game we have a projection for.
Counts 38% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
21.6
BestWeek 8 vs TEN
Trevor Lawrence
21.5
Week 8 vs IND
Next Matchup
How generous the next opponent has been to this position, from our own defensive splits.
Counts 18% toward the verdict for this lens
Even
Joe Burrow
Neutral
vs TEN, 1.00x
Trevor Lawrence
Neutral
vs IND, 1.00x
Remaining Schedule
Average matchup difficulty across every game left, from our own defensive splits.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
Neutral
1.00x average
Trevor Lawrence
Neutral
1.00x average
Beat Rate
How often he meets or beats his own weekly projection. Weeks he was projected for but missed count against him.
Counts 16% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
52%
31 graded games
Trevor Lawrence
59%
Best33 graded games
Availability
Share of the weeks he was projected for that he actually played.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
100%
Trevor Lawrence
100%
Week-to-Week Consistency
How much his weekly score bounces around his projection. Steadier is better for setting a lineup.
Counts 11% toward the verdict for this lens
Joe Burrow
Metronome
BestSpread 0.38
Trevor Lawrence
Metronome
Spread 0.42
Age & Long-Term Appeal
Younger players hold value longer in dynasty formats.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
29.9 yrs
Year 7
Trevor Lawrence
27.1 yrs
Year 6
Risk Level
Lower-risk profiles combine a steady weekly score, a proven tier, and prime age.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
Metronome
Trevor Lawrence
Metronome
Upside
Room to climb, blending recent momentum, youth, and tier.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
Trending up
Trevor Lawrence
Trending up
Dynasty Outlook
A plain-language read blending market value with age. Shown for context; its inputs are already scored above, so it does not count twice.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
Win-now asset
Age 29.9
Trevor Lawrence
Blue-chip
Age 27.1
Redraft Outlook
A plain-language read blending rank with recent production. Shown for context; its inputs are already scored above.
Context only, not counted toward the verdict
Joe Burrow
Weekly starter
Trevor Lawrence
Every-week flex
| Week | Joe Burrow | Opponent | Trevor Lawrence | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 21.6 | TEN | 21.5 | IND |
| 9 | 17.8 | ATL | 21.1 | BAL |
| 10 | 19.6 | PIT | 22.3 | TEN |
| 11 | 22.9 | WAS | 22.7 | NYG |
| 12 | 19.5 | NO | 22.3 | TEN |
| 13 | 18.4 | CLE | 23.0 | CHI |
| 14 | 17.7 | KC | 21.9 | PIT |
| 15 | 18.2 | CAR | 22.0 | HOU |
| 16 | 19.8 | IND | 23.9 | DAL |
| 17 | 18.9 | BAL | 25.0 | WAS |
| 18 | 18.4 | CLE | 22.2 | IND |
Trevor LawrenceNeutral
| Player | Week | Opponent | Multiplier | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 8 | TEN | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Joe Burrow | 9 | ATL | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Joe Burrow | 10 | PIT | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Joe Burrow | 11 | WAS | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Joe Burrow | 12 | NO | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Joe Burrow | 13 | CLE | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Joe Burrow | 14 | KC | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Joe Burrow | 15 | CAR | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Joe Burrow | 16 | IND | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Joe Burrow | 17 | BAL | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Joe Burrow | 18 | CLE | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Trevor Lawrence | 8 | IND | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Trevor Lawrence | 9 | BAL | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Trevor Lawrence | 10 | TEN | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Trevor Lawrence | 11 | NYG | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Trevor Lawrence | 12 | TEN | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Trevor Lawrence | 13 | CHI | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Trevor Lawrence | 14 | PIT | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Trevor Lawrence | 15 | HOU | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Trevor Lawrence | 16 | DAL | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Trevor Lawrence | 17 | WAS | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Trevor Lawrence | 18 | IND | 1.00 | Neutral |
| Trevor Lawrence |
| 216 |
| 248 |
| 279 |
| Player | Week | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|
| Joe Burrow | 1 | 20.9 | 15.2 | -5.8 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 17.8 | 16.2 | -1.6 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 17.5 | 22.6 | +5.1 |
| Joe Burrow | 4 | 19.6 | 25.7 | +6.1 |
| Joe Burrow | 5 | 19.9 | 24.6 | +4.7 |
| Joe Burrow | 7 | 19.7 | 28.9 | +9.1 |
| Joe Burrow | 8 | 21.2 | Did not play | - |
| Joe Burrow | 9 | 17.4 | Did not play | - |
| Joe Burrow | 10 | 19.1 | Did not play | - |
| Joe Burrow | 11 | 22.4 | Did not play | - |
| Joe Burrow | 12 | 19.1 | Did not play | - |
| Joe Burrow | 13 | 18.0 | Did not play | - |
| Joe Burrow | 14 | 17.3 | Did not play | - |
| Joe Burrow | 15 | 17.8 | Did not play | - |
| Joe Burrow | 16 | 19.3 | Did not play | - |
| Joe Burrow | 17 | 18.4 | Did not play | - |
| Joe Burrow | 18 | 18.0 | Did not play | - |
| Trevor Lawrence | 1 | 18.6 | 26.1 | +7.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 17.2 | 7.2 | -10.0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 19.3 | 20.8 | +1.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 20.4 | 13.1 | -7.4 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 5 | 17.9 | 22.7 | +4.8 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 6 | 18.4 | 28.3 | +9.9 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 8 | 21.0 | Did not play | - |
| Trevor Lawrence | 9 | 20.6 | Did not play | - |
| Trevor Lawrence | 10 | 21.8 | Did not play | - |
| Trevor Lawrence | 11 | 22.2 | Did not play | - |
| Trevor Lawrence | 12 | 21.8 | Did not play | - |
| Trevor Lawrence | 13 | 22.4 | Did not play | - |
| Trevor Lawrence | 14 | 21.4 | Did not play | - |
| Trevor Lawrence | 15 | 21.4 | Did not play | - |
| Trevor Lawrence | 16 | 23.4 | Did not play | - |
| Trevor Lawrence | 17 | 24.4 | Did not play | - |
| Trevor Lawrence | 18 | 21.7 | Did not play | - |
| Player | Boom | About right | Bust | Did not play | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| Date | Joe Burrow | Trevor Lawrence |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | 5,254 | 4,513 |
| Oct 27, 2026 | 4,996 | 4,333 |
| Oct 26, 2026 | 4,959 | 4,391 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | 4,810 | 4,384 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 4,712 | 4,529 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4,914 | 4,497 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 5,055 | 4,399 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5,131 | 4,494 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 5,077 | 4,476 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 4,987 | 4,149 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 4,998 | 4,228 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 4,950 | 4,174 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 5,218 | 4,275 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 5,033 | 4,382 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4,719 | 4,089 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 4,723 | 4,319 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 4,726 | 4,302 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | 4,688 | 4,356 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | 4,653 | 4,376 |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 4,708 | 4,107 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 4,841 | 4,165 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 4,820 | 4,298 |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 4,727 | 4,330 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 4,950 | 4,275 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | 5,409 | 4,660 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | 5,421 | 4,807 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 5,304 | 4,722 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 5,348 | 4,334 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 5,195 | 4,459 |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 5,167 | 4,319 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 4,974 | 4,328 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | 5,014 | 4,487 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | 4,889 | 4,378 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 4,574 | 3,673 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 4,368 | 3,606 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 4,416 | 3,902 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 4,532 | 4,244 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 4,542 | 4,388 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | 4,655 | 4,421 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | 4,472 | 4,354 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 4,468 | 3,908 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 4,705 | 3,963 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 4,923 | 3,898 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 4,975 | 4,017 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 4,892 | 3,729 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | 4,909 | 3,650 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | 4,961 | 3,677 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 4,970 | 3,594 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 5,153 | 3,646 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | 5,057 | 4,283 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | 5,036 | 4,260 |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 4,941 | 4,286 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | 4,968 | 4,289 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | 4,949 | 4,269 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 4,937 | 4,212 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | 5,114 | 4,222 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | 5,124 | 4,227 |
| Sep 1, 2026 | 5,119 | 4,131 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 5,068 | 4,110 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | 4,895 | 4,242 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 4,901 | 4,119 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 4,940 | 4,165 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | 4,976 | 4,216 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 4,966 | 4,256 |
| Aug 25, 2026 | 4,908 | 4,217 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 4,844 | 4,040 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | 4,894 | 4,046 |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 4,918 | 3,981 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 4,994 | 4,059 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 5,047 | 4,050 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | 5,058 | 4,094 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | 5,157 | 4,129 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 5,158 | 4,116 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | 5,087 | 4,241 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | 4,926 | 3,717 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | 4,893 | 3,758 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | 4,846 | 3,732 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | 5,024 | 3,713 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 5,011 | 3,797 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | 4,989 | 3,891 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | 5,017 | 3,841 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 5,044 | 3,797 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 5,138 | 3,823 |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 5,114 | 3,816 |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 5,094 | 3,773 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | 5,109 | 3,725 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | 5,118 | 3,744 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 5,109 | 3,739 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 5,095 | 3,779 |
Unmatched format
Oct 19, 2026
Redraft 1QB PPR
Oct 17, 2026
Redraft PPR SF TEP
Oct 25, 2026
Dynasty PPR SF TEP
Oct 22, 2026
Redraft 1QB PPR
Oct 21, 2026