How many games a team should win from here, as a 1 to 99 score ranked inside this league only. A 70 is the seventieth percentile against these opponents, not against every league on the site.
Where the numbers come from
- Your league's scoring. Every projection rescored under your actual settings, not generic PPR. Here: 0.5 PPR, 6 point passing TDs, 0.03999999910593033 per passing yard.
- Your best lineup, every week. Your real starting slots filled optimally, including byes, superflex, and every flex variant.
- Opponent strength. Points each NFL defense gave up to each position over the last two seasons, weighted toward the recent one.
- Player reliability. How often each player beats their own projection, with this season weighted heaviest and small samples pulled toward neutral.
- Availability and injuries. Current designations suppress the coming week, season-long ones the rest of the year, and the next player up takes the slot.
- The actual schedule. Your real slate from Sleeper, simulated thousands of times for playoff and title odds.
How the score is weighted
- Scoring, meaning projected points per week: 55%
- Schedule-adjusted win rate: 25%
- Depth and bye coverage: 10%
- Recent form against expectation: 10% (redistributed until games are played)
What it deliberately ignores
Draft picks. A 2028 first cannot start for you in week 4, so it has no place in a competitive score. Picks still count toward the trade-value rankings the value column compares against.
Limits: projections are one source's opinion, weekly outcomes are modeled as independent, and the bracket reseeds each round. The odds are a guide, not a promise.
